Region Overview
Key Statistics
Municipalities: 10
Population: 362,942
Largest Settlement: Paisley
Municipal Councillors: 176
Regional Commissioners: 50
Description
Whereas my 2020 version of this project had proposed a trans-Clyde, but not Strathclyde, region simply titled “Clyde”, this time around I’ve gone for a more dramatic solution, which treats the river as the natural dividing line it is after it emerges from Glasgow. The southern side of that divide here becomes the Renfrewshire Region. This is a slightly neater region than its counterpart across the Clyde, as only a very small portion (single-digit thousand residents) of it comes from outwith the historic boundaries of the old Renfrewshire county, which as historic Scottish counties go is easily one of the most populous.
I’ve very strongly resisted the idea of annexing neighbouring areas to Glasgow, even though many of the towns here form a contiguous settlement with it. Given Scotland has a huge problem with over-sized local government, expanding our largest city is hardly going to be part of the solution. If we took a consistent approach and tied the entire urban area directly to Glasgow, Renfrewshire to all intents and purposes ceases to exist, as both Renfrew (the historic county town) and Paisley (the largest town) would be absorbed into the city. It would also leave the remainder of Renfrewshire, by this point centred on Greenock, with nowhere logical to join up with, raising the possibility of a truly ugly “Ayrshire and Inverclyde” region.
Typically for urban Scotland, the SNP would be the leading party here, and although Labour would be their primary competitor in most municipalities, the Conservatives place first in more councils simply due to where their strength is concentrated. The Lib Dems and Greens only have modest strength here, and generally in mutually exclusive places, which means that although every municipality has at least one councillor from either party, only Paisley has representation from both. Effectively, the Greens do well in the eastern end of the region, compared to historic Lib Dem strength in the western end.
Projected Overall Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Overall Regional Election Results (2022)
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Note: Bear in mind that for the regional results on an individual municipality basis below, the final seat is allocated from a region-wide levelling process. This means that whilst the distribution of seats is correctly proportional across the whole region, that is not necessarily the case in an individual municipality. The party that won each municipality’s levelling seat is marked by an asterisk * next to their name on the Votes chart.
Barrhead and Neilston Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 24,997
Largest Settlement: Barrhead
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
When Scotland’s current council boundaries were being drawn in the early 90’s, the inclusion of Barrhead and Neilston within East Renfrewshire was one of the silliest decisions. Not only were these working class towns highly politically distinct from the affluent suburbs that made up Eastwood, they actually sit on a completely separate “spur” of settlement from Glasgow, with the M77 in the way of the rest of East Renfrewshire. Completely daft, and given their populations, they make an obvious double-barrelled Burgh, with the only other settlement in the area being the village of Uplawmoor.
The political difference between this segment and Eastwood is extremely evident given how poorly the Conservatives did, even after Independent transfers for the Regional side of things. Be aware though that in the actual 2022 elections this data draws upon, their (unsuccessful) candidate was suspended during the campaign for having made offensive remarks. The SNP end up with a pretty strong lead here, and the combined sum for popular local (Barrhead, Liboside and Uplawmoor) independent Danny Devlin and less popular Conservative-turned-Independent Paul Aitken notionally places second. With so many votes going spare, Labour come second in seat terms to the SNP, and the Greens are able to win a councillor in what would be their weakest East Renfrewshire municipality.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Eastwood North and Eaglesham District
Key Statistics
Population: 43,892
Largest Settlement: Giffnock
Municipal Councillors: 21
Regional Commissioners: 6
Description
This is one of my nice little Frankenstein’s Municipalities, consisting of the bulk of the 1973 Eastwood District with some villages from neighbouring councils grafted on. As this is a little bit of a “whatever’s left over after Newton Mearns gets its own Burgh”, it’s effectively a slightly odd combination of Glasgow suburbs plus some satellite villages. On the suburb side of things you’ve got the cluster of Giffnock, Clarkston, Thornliebank, Netherlee, Stamperland and Busby. The villages are Waterfood, Eaglesham (both currently in East Renfrewshire), Carmunnock (pinched from Glasgow) and Thorntonhall (from South Lanarkshire). Neither of these fit, to my view, within the City or Burgh councils they’d otherwise have ended up in, given their geographic separation.
This is a relatively affluent area, but one that’s connected enough to Glasgow that the Conservatives are only a major rather than dominant force. Indeed, the SNP eke out the narrowest lead in terms of votes in the municipal component, which has them lucking into a slight advantage in seats too rather than a tie. It’s the weakest bit of the current East Renfrewshire for Labour but they still come ahead of the combined total for Independents, three of whom (David Macdonald from Clarkston, Netherlee and Williamwoodn; Allan Steele and Alice Roy both from Giffnock and Thornliebank) would be elected. It’s also the strongest municipality in Renfrewshire for the Greens, though not enough for two councillors.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Erskine and Renfrewshire North District
Key Statistics
Population: 28,234
Largest Settlement: Erskine
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
This district covers everything in the current Renfrewshire Council that lies on the or near the Clyde west of the River Cart. In addition to Erskine itself, it includes Bishopton, Inchinnan and Langbank. The latter is an addition relative to the 2020 proposal, when it had been linked with Port Glasgow, as part of an attempt to neaten up the western Renfrewshire proposals. This is one of the most rapidly growing parts of an area that is otherwise slowly declining population wise, as a massive development on a former industrial site is massively expanding Bishopton. This has caused some chaos in the real world, as Renfrewshire Council bungled their planning and built a primary school half the size of what they needed.
As per the Renfrewshire norm it’s the SNP and Labour who are the two strongest parties here. However, this is a comparatively affluent part of the current council, and it’s therefore the second best of them for the Conservatives. In line with most of the western Renfrewshire districts, there’s a Lib Dem seat here too, but no presence at all from the Greens.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Gourock and Firth Coast District
Key Statistics
Population: 26,208
Largest Settlement: Gourock
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
In the 2020 version of this project, Inverclyde was problematic. Consisting of three historic burghs which have merged into one another flanked on either side by some more distant villages, it was quite hard to break it apart. In that version, Port Glasgow and the eastern villages were split off, leaving a still pretty chunky district covering the remainder. I really didn’t like that, so I’ve tried to come up with a better solution this time – albeit one that still has tricky elements.
This time it’s Gourock that’s splitting off the core of Inverclyde, taking with it Inverkip and Wemyss Bay. As with the 2020 version this also includes nicking Skelmorlie from Ayrshire. That has a small consequence for Ayrshire, but I insist on doing it because look, you’re close enough you can tan the good people of Skelmorlie’s windaes in from Wemyss Bay train station – though, of course, I advise you don’t. Possibly more controversially though, to make up the numbers I’ve split off the westernmost chunk of Greenock, the segment beyond Hilltop/Larkfield Road, plus Branchton. I think that’s the only place I’ve broken a locality boundary in the entire project, but this comes in too small otherwise. Sorry, Greenock, but trimming you down a bit is a price I’m willing to pay for less chunky local government.
The SNP lead over Labour is the largest of any of the municipalities covering the current Inverclyde, though it’s not as wide in seats as in votes. Labour’s vote share falls in just the right spot to benefit from the huge share of the vote Independent Lynne Quinn (West) had, which could have elected her three times over. Though not particularly strong vote share wise, the Lib Dems do have a seat here, which until the retirement of a personally popular councillor ahead of 2022 was the case in reality as well. Alba had their best regional result here, but not enough to win a seat, this covering the Inverclyde West ward that prominent-but-not-popular former councillor Chris McEleney absolutely bombed in.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Greenock and Port Glasgow Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 49,126
Largest Settlement: Greenock
Municipal Councillors: 23
Regional Commissioners: 6
Description
Another Inverclyde-centred municipality with significant differences from my 2020 proposals (see Gourock and Firth Coast if you haven’t already for details of that), this merges (the majority of) Greenock with Port Glasgow for a double barrelled Burgh. I think overall this is a much cleaner way to deal with that big urban core whilst still keeping to the spirit of the project, rather than awkwardly having paired largely working class Port Glasgow with some very affluent villages as I did last time.
True to big burgh form, the vast bulk of the vote here is taken up by the SNP and Labour, with the SNP taking the overall lead. The weakest Conservative share anywhere in the Renfrewshires is nonetheless enough for two seats. Their vote is just behind the Independent total, which is enough to elect Drew McKenzie (East Central) and Tommy McVey (South), as was the case in the actual elections to Inverclyde. Although it’s their weaker end of the current Inverclyde, the Lib Dems are still above threshold and so pick up a seat, as well as one of the regional commissioners via the levelling mechanism.
Note that because the Inverclyde East ward that a large chunk of Port Glasgow lies within was uncontested in 2022, I had to estimate a vote share in that segment rather than draw from real data. I did so by splitting the 2017 data from that ward into Port Glasgow and Kilmacolm/Quarrier’s Village components, then applying similar swings as to a reference ward. For the Port Glasgow chunk, that was Inverclyde East Centre. Whilst that should give a half-decent approximation, it’s not going to be perfect, so there’s a few more pinches of salt on this one compared to most other estimates.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Johnstone and Renfrewshire South District
Key Statistics
Population: 32,155
Largest Settlement: Johnstone
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Johnstone and Renfrewshire South is another one in the general attempt to make western Renfrewshire look better than it did in 2020. Alongside Johnstone, it also covers Elderslie, Kilbarchan, Howwood and Lochwinnoch, but it no longer has the other villages lying north of the A737 which had formed an oversized “Central Renfrewshire” in that earlier pass. Although the Lochwinnoch end is more rural, I reckon this is still a half-decent, relatively compact proposal.
Politically, this is the only municipality in Renfrewshire where Labour are the strongest party. Given the character of Johnstone, it’s also quite a poor area for the Conservatives, placing behind popular independent Andy Doig (from the succinctly named Johnstone North, Kilbarchan, Howwood and Lochwinnoch ward) in vote terms. In a reversal of the norm for western Renfrewshire municipalities, the Lib Dems don’t make it onto the council but the Greens do. The Greens had a very minimal presence across the wider area, with no Inverclyde candidates and only one outside of Paisley in Renfrewshire Council. This covers that sole ward they did contest, hence the councillor.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Newton Mearns Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 29,738
Largest Settlement: Newton Mearns
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Newton Mearns really doesn’t need much explanation – it’s… Newton Mearns. As the name suggests though it is a relatively new town, and thus it’s never actually had its own Burgh Council. It easily qualifies for one under my rules though.
The town is by this point pretty widely understood to be a Conservative stronghold, and the projected results demonstrate that. Not only is this their strongest municipality in the region, it’s their strongest in Scotland, though it’s third in regional vote terms. For the left-of-centre Glaswegians greedily eying up what they think are the vast riches of additional Council Tax they’d get annexing areas like this, you might want to consider you also get these voters.
This is one of the cases where using Sainte-Laguë rather than D’Hondt narrowly denies the dominant party a majority, with the combined total for SNP, Labour and a Green scraping ahead. Whether they could co-operate to lock the Conservatives out of an administration would depend on how willing Labour were to offer budget support to the SNP, or vice versa. Due to the need for the system to find an additional Green spot at regional level, this is where that seat ends up despite the Conservative dominance.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Paisley Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 78,082
Largest Settlement: Paisley
Municipal Councillors: 29
Regional Commissioners: 9
Description
Paisley is the largest town in Scotland, and in fact has a population larger than any of the four “cities” which don’t currently have their own city councils. By Scottish standards it’s absolutely massive, and it really should be a Burgh all by itself. So I’ve made it one, even if it is only imaginary.
Like most big towns, the SNP are the most powerful force here, but with Labour also very strong. The Conservatives don’t do particularly brilliantly here but still end up with a sizeable delegation given the number of seats up for grabs. With two seats this is the only Renfrewshire municipality to give multiple Lib Dems, and it’s one of only two in the western part of the region to have a Green.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Renfrew Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 23,988
Largest Settlement: Renfrew
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Like so many historic county towns, Renfrew hasn’t retained the importance it once had, long overtaken in size by a fair few towns across the county. Nonetheless, it’s big enough to justify a Burgh to itself, even if it’s one that’d be very obviously in Paisley’s shadow.
The SNP get pretty close to a majority of votes here, but not quite all the way. In what is a bit of a pattern in the Glasgow-bordering regions, if this had been D’Hondt rather than Sainte-Laguë they’d have won a majority of seats too. It’s not though, so they don’t, and a Lib Dem takes the last seat instead. Again note the lack of Greens here – they did well enough in 2017 that I’m confident they could have crossed the 3% threshold if they had stood, and might have deflated the Lib Dems enough to pinch the seat they got.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Strathgryffe District
Key Statistics
Population: 26,522
Largest Settlement: Linwood
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Having found Inverclyde especially difficult (see Gourock and Firth Coast for more discussion on that), and also finding inland Renfrewshire a bit sub-par 2022, this is one of the big tweaks to western Renfrewshire. It’s quite an elegant one as well, if I do say so myself. The Gryfe Water (one f) flows from the Gryffe (two f’s) reservoirs, and flows past Kilmacolm before joining the Green Water to form the River Gryffe (two f’s) just before Quarrier’s Village. All of this section is drawn from the current Inverclyde, and was paired with Port Glasgow last time.
The river then continues on through or past Bridge of Weir, Houston and Crosslee before joining the Black Cart at the border of this district. Going backwards along the Black Cart, Linwood and Brookfield are also included – all of these sections being pulled from the Central Renfrewshire proposal in 2020. This draws together an area largely defined by the valley of one river, which I think is nice and coherent. In case you can’t tell, I was very pleased when I came up with this solution.
Most of these villages are on the more affluent end of the scale – only Linwood isn’t really – which helps make this a tightly three-cornered contest in which the Conservatives scrape ahead. It is only scrape though, as they end up tied in seats with the SNP, and both are one ahead of Labour, with the Lib Dems filling the remaining vacancy. As demonstrated in the regional vote, past results lead me to estimate a strong enough Green share that had they stood they’d have won a seat.
As mentioned in the Greenock and Port Glasgow description, the Inverclyde East ward which includes Kilmacolm and Quarrier’s Village was uncontested at the 2022 elections. An estimated result, applying swings from Bishopton, Bridge of Weir and Langbank as a reference ward, was used to round this out. Whilst that’s probably good enough for these purposes, note it makes figures here even more hypothetical than the rest of the project.