Region Overview
Key Statistics
Municipalities: 17
Population: 526,713
Largest Settlement: Livingston
Municipal Councillors: 277
Regional Commissioners: 79
Description
Lothian and Borders pairs the current three Lothian Councils – West, Mid and East – with the Scottish Borders Council. It does not include Edinburgh which is in Lothian but has a population almost as large as the other areas put together and so would be overwhelming. Under the 1973 Act, Lothian (including Edinburgh) was one region and the Borders a separate one. I decided against that here as the Borders would have ended up the smallest mainland region, at three quarters the population of Dumfries & Galloway. Unlike D&G, the Borders strikes me as better connected to its neighbour, and there is precedent for a certain degree of shared service provision in the old Lothian and Borders Police and Fire Services.
As a consequence of not including Edinburgh, West Lothian is somewhat cut off from the other parts. There is geographic contiguity as there’s a point of contact between West Lothian and Tweeddale, but that’s in the middle of the Pentland Hills so there’s no direct transport connection. Although that looks a bit visually awkward, it’s not necessarily the worst thing, as folk would have to be travelling in and through Edinburgh regardless. You could see this one being a bit of an Aberdeenshire situation, where the council headquarters end up outside the area as a matter of convenience.
One big change compared to the 2020 version however is that although this doesn’t include any of Edinburgh city, it does include part of the City of Edinburgh Council area. Of Scotland’s big cities, Edinburgh is the one that has done the most to absorb physically close but unconnected neighbouring villages. Those are snipped back off the city here and effectively returned to their historic association with West Lothian. As a result, the West Lothian end does have some significant differences relative to the previous iteration.
The mixture of areas this region takes in also gives it a lot of political diversity. The SNP generally take a lead in the West Lothian and Midlothian components, Labour in East Lothian, whilst the Conservatives are top in the Borders. The Lib Dems and Greens also have a substantial presence across the region, though the former go for depth within the Borders and those western Edinburgh villages, whereas the latter go for breadth and only have one municipality where they fail to pick up at least one councillor. The Borders municipalities are also the largest coherent bloc to put Labour fifth in party terms, making their second place at regional level all the more remarkable… even if it doesn’t give them a second place in seats. This region is the one place where the regional proportionality falls down, as the Conservatives are strong enough to get one of the directly apportioned seats in every municipality. That ends up two more than their ideal proportional share, knocking one seat off the tally for each of Labour and the Greens.
Projected Overall Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Overall Regional Election Results (2022)
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Note: Bear in mind that for the regional results on an individual municipality basis below, the final seat is allocated from a region-wide levelling process. This means that whilst the distribution of seats is correctly proportional across the whole region, that is not necessarily the case in an individual municipality. The party that won each municipality’s levelling seat is marked by an asterisk * next to their name on the Votes chart.
Armadale and Blackburn District
Key Statistics
Population: 23,254
Largest Settlement: Armadale
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
If the borders of the region overall look a bit wonky, Armadale and Blackburn is probably the wonkiest looking municipality within it. In 2020, the Blackburn portion had been paired with Bathgate, whilst the rest was with Whitburn and the Breich Valley, creating a district with the rough shape of the ghost dug from the Nightmare Before Christmas. This time it’s just his ears (Torphichen), snout (Blackridge), neck (Armadale) and shoulders (Blackburn and Seafield). Despite the odd shape, the River Almond forms a reasonably natural southern boundary. If you were totally unhappy with the shape, an alternative might be to put Blackburn in with the Whitburn-centred district, and attach the rest to Bathgate.
The oddities continue into the political composition of the area, which is dominated by support for Stuart Borrowman, Independent councillor for Armadale and Blackridge for many years until his sad passing in 2024. He takes up over a third of the vote but can only be elected once, leaving the SNP with almost half of the seats on just over a quarter of the vote, with similar degrees of overrepresentation for Labour and the Conservatives. The Greens fall short, in the only municipality in the region not to have a seat, but as the regional vote shows they’d have likely picked one up but for that Independent dominance.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Bathgate Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 22,326
Largest Settlement: Bathgate
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Bathgate is, quite simply, Bathgate. The town is just the right size to be its own burgh, and whereas in the 2020 version I’d paired it with Blackburn and Seafield, I’ve just made it standalone here. As noted in the Armadale and Blackburn description, an alternative if that district felt a bit weird would be to pair Bathgate with most of it bar that Blackburn chunk.
Politically, this is hands-down the neatest one to estimate in the entire project. It’s a single ward, and all five Holyrood parties plus Alba stood there in 2022. No accounting for missing parties, no Independents to redistribute for a regional estimate, just plain and simple. That result had the SNP just a smidge ahead of Labour, but that ties them on seats in this model. A comparatively weak Conservative share nets two seats, and the Greens just manage to scrape a seat too.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Berwickshire District
Key Statistics
Population: 22,031
Largest Settlement: Eyemouth
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Plenty of other Scottish counties have had their namesake town either eclipsed or, as in neighbouring Roxburghshire, disappear entirely. Berwickshire however is truly unique in that although its historic county town of Berwick-upon-Tweed is both healthy and larger than any other town in the county, it’s not only not actually in the county, but famously not even in the country. Berwick-upon-Tweed has been part of England for centuries now, leaving its county orphaned and most recently centred on the much smaller town of Duns instead. This district largely replicates the version from the 1973 Act, which was shorn of the Lauderdale area.
Politically, Berwickshire is easily the strongest part of the region for the Conservatives, who’ve made it something of a stronghold of their recent revival. This is accordingly the SNP’s second weakest part of Lothian and Borders. Both of the Independents who contested the East Berwickshire ward in 2022, James Anderson and Raquel Lloyd-Jones, would be elected too, though only Anderson was successful in reality. Each of the other three major parties pick up a seat to round things out.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Bonnyrigg District
Key Statistics
Population: 36,684
Largest Settlement: Bonnyrigg
Municipal Councillors: 19
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
All of the Midlothian-based municipalities take a similar approach, with one clear central historic burgh lending its name to a wider urbanised area and some rural hinterland. Here, that pairs Bonnyrigg with Newtongrange, Gorebridge and Rosewell amongst the major settlements, plus much smaller villages like Temple and North Middleton.
A narrow Labour lead over the SNP on the district council doesn’t give them any lead in seats, though that lead reverses at regional level after factoring in the Lib Dems, whose absence here makes this the only municipality outside of the West Lothian end of the region they miss out on a seat. The Conservatives secure a trio of councillors, and a double for the Greens makes this the Midlothian portion of at least one duo in every existing council area. In reality, the Greens have gone two elections without Midlothian representation, but they did win a seat in Bonnyrigg in 2012.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Broxburn and Kirkliston District
Key Statistics
Population: 30,479
Largest Settlement: Broxburn
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
In the 2020 version of this project, Broxburn had been tied with Linlithgow in a “Linlithgow and Broxburn” district. This time around, I decided to break off the western Edinburgh villages, and that’s put Broxburn alongside neighbouring Uphall and Winchburgh in with Kirkliston, Newbridge and Ratho. That returns Kirkliston to its historic association with West Lothian, though the other two villages were traditionally in Midlothian.
Pairing a chunk of West Lothian with a stretch of literally the strongest ward for the Lib Dems (or any party) in the country effectively gives the SNP a natural lead, as the non-SNP vote leans Labour in the West Lothian end and Lib Dem in the Edinburgh side. Overall that makes this Labour’s weakest municipality in the Lothian portion of the region, and the Lib Dems’ second strongest across it all. Accordingly, this is one of only two districts in Lothian and Borders where the Conservatives come fourth. With a single seat the Greens complete the Holyrood party set.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Dalkeith District
Key Statistics
Population: 30,855
Largest Settlement: Dalkeith
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
All of the Midlothian-based municipalities take a similar approach, with one clear central historic burgh lending its name to a wider urbanised area and some rural hinterland. The core here is Dalkeith, plus attached urban areas in Newbattle, Woodburn and Mayfield. It also includes the rapidly growing village of Danderhall right on the border with Edinburgh, and the smaller village of Pathhead in the rural lobe lying to the east.
The distribution of votes here means that Labour in first place nonetheless tie with the SNP in second in seat terms. The Conservatives have about half as much support and duly win half as many seats, whilst both the Greens and Lib Dems pick up one each.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Dunbar and North Berwick District
Key Statistics
Population: 25,700
Largest Settlement: Dunbar
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Bordering Berwickshire itself, Dunbar and North Berwick really emphasises that Berwickshire isn’t allowed to having any towns actually called Berwick in it. The two towns that give this district its name are clearly the dominant components, though the village of East Linton was also historically a burgh. The rest of the population here can be found in much smaller villages like Dirleton, Stenton and Innerwick.
Politically, there’s quite a lot going on here. For one thing, it’s the only district in the region outside of the Borders to have a Conservative lead. It’s likewise the only one that doesn’t have enormously strong Independents where the SNP are pushed into third place in vote terms, however narrowly that is. The vote difference between the top three parties isn’t enough to create a seat gap though, so the Conservatives, Labour and SNP all come out equal. For the Greens, it’s their strongest municipality in the region and thus one where they get two seats, and even the Lib Dems have a pretty decent base that easily secures a seat.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Ettrick and Lauderdale District
Key Statistics
Population: 39,587
Largest Settlement: Galashiels
Municipal Councillors: 19
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
As with the rest of the Borders districts, Ettrick and Lauderdale is to all intents and purposes a recreation of the 1973 Act district of the same name. Unlike the others, that wasn’t effectively the continuation of a previously existing county. Instead, it includes parts of all four historic counties. Selkirkshire is included in its entirety and contributes most of the population via Galashiels and Selkirk itself. From Roxburghshire come Melrose and both St Boswells, from Berwickshire Earlston and Lauder, and from the non-borders county of Midlothian the villages of Stow and Heriot. The 2020 version hadn’t been such a close replication of the 1973 Act, so this one is a bit thicker around the “neck” with rural components.
The Conservatives take a lead here, though only relatively narrowly ahead of the combined sum for Independents and then the SNP, though they have a seat lead over the latter and a wider gap in the regional vote. The Independent vote is massively under-used, electing just David Parker (elected in Leaderdale and Melrose) and Caroline Cochrane (elected in Selkirkshire). The Lib Dems get a pair of councillors, the Greens would follow their real Galashiels councillor with one seat here, and Labour also nab one too.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Haddington and Tranent District
Key Statistics
Population: 35,133
Largest Settlement: Tranent
Municipal Councillors: 19
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Usually in a “Place and Another Place” municipality names the larger of the two goes at the front, but here I’ve put Haddington ahead of Tranent simply to acknowledge its status as East Lothian’s historic county town. In addition to the two core towns, this entirely inland district includes some large villages at Macmerry, Ormiston and Pencaitland, as well as smaller settlements including Elphinstone, Gifford and Athelstaneford.
This is Labour’s strongest spot in the entire Lothian and Borders region, given them a very comfortable lead over the SNP and the Conservatives. Though it’s the weakest part of the eastern Lothians for the Greens, they still easily pick up a seat, as do the Lib Dems. Despite their relative weakness here, it ends up one basically the last place available in the process for a Lib Dem levelling seat.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Linlithgow and South Queensferry District
Key Statistics
Population: 25,423
Largest Settlement: Linlithgow
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Whereas Linlithgow had been paired with Broxburn and surrounds in the 2020 version of this project, breaking the boundary with the current City of Edinburgh allows South Queensferry to return to its traditional West Lothian position. Although it crosses that boundary, the Almond makes for a natural eastern end, with the “real” urban area of Edinburgh beginning on the other side. This district is otherwise light on settlements, with only Philipstoun and Bridgend being of any note.
The Lib Dems were decently popular in Linlithgow anyway, but it’s the Queensferry component where they are completely dominant and which secures them their only lead both in the region and anywhere in the Central Belt. It’s correspondingly a weaker area for the SNP though they still place an easy second, with a dead heat between the Conservatives and Labour for third and fourth, and the Greens securing their best and only double-digit performance in the West Lothian side of the region. That also means it’s the only municipality in the region where the five major parties are all in double digit vote shares, and where they all win multiple seats.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Livingston Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 68,995
Largest Settlement: Livingston
Municipal Councillors: 27
Regional Commissioners: 8
Description
Formerly a very small village, Livingston was one of the post-war New Towns that expanded rapidly over the course of a couple of decades. Now one of the 10 largest settlements in Scotland, it wasn’t until the late 60’s that it was formally established and saw its first residents. That means despite the size it is now, it never qualified for its own Burgh before the 1973 Act did away with them. It’s finally granted that, at least hypothetically, in this project.
In addition to Livingston itself, the Burgh includes the villages of Mid Calder, East Calder and Kirknewton, which would otherwise have been a bit orphaned. I did consider whether to take those portions of the current Edinburgh southwest of the bypass, including Currie and Balerno, and tie them with these villages to create a “Pentlands” district. However, unlike the villages carved off of Edinburgh elsewhere in this region, those portions are considered statistically part of the core Edinburgh settlement, so I was less willing to create such a break here. If I had done so, it would have made for a slightly neater shape to the region overall.
The SNP are very strong here, making this their best municipality in Lothian and Borders. As you’d expect for a major urban area, Labour place second, with the Conservatives in third, though combined they have as many seats as the SNP do. That leaves one seat for each of an Independent in Frank Anderson (formerly an SNP Councillor, stood unsuccessfully in East Livingston and East Calder), the Greens and Lib Dems. The Greens also get the levelling seat here in part because of the size of this municipality relative to most others in the region.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Musselburgh Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 27,704
Largest Settlement: Musselburgh
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Okay so it might be faintly silly to say “Musselburgh Burgh” but convention, see? Anyway, this is an easy Burgh to justify given the solid size of the town, though it has now grown to be contiguous with Edinburgh. In addition to Musselburgh itself, the Burgh covers the smaller villages of Wallyford and Whitecraig. This whole area was actually part of Midlothian before the 1973 Act transferred it to East Lothian. With the kind of setup this project envisions, that distinction mostly ceases to matter.
Musselburgh is the only portion of the current East Lothian where the SNP take the lead, though it’s such a small advantage over Labour that the two end up tied in seat terms. A comparatively weak Conservative performance puts them at their closest to being beaten by the Greens in this region, likewise creating a tie in seats, and reflecting the fact the Greens won a councillor in the real Musselburgh ward in 2022. That leaves the Lib Dems as the only party with a single representative.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Penicuik District
Key Statistics
Population: 28,973
Largest Settlement: Penicuik
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
All of the Midlothian-based municipalities take a similar approach, with one clear central historic burgh lending its name to a wider urbanised area and some rural hinterland. Penicuik is the centre of this one, alongside a second historic burgh in Loanhead. Roslin, Bilston and Straiton largely round this one out, with Straiton notably being a rare example of a part of a city that was chopped off in 1973 rather than grown into.
Penicuik is interestingly the best chunk of the current Midlothian for all of the major parties except Labour, who have to balance that out with their worst in this chunk by some distance. They are nonetheless second behind the SNP, but not too far ahead of the Conservatives. The last two spots are then taken by the Greens and Lib Dems.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Preston and Gullane District
Key Statistics
Population: 23,743
Largest Settlement: Prestonpans
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
A distinctively narrow district, Preston and Gullane (or is it Gullane?) stretches along the western coast of East Lothian through Prestonpans, Cockenzie and Port Seton, Longniddry, Aberlady and finally Gullane. Barring a small portion to the east of Longniddry to allow for the ongoing expansion of that village, the East Coast Main Line serves as the southern boundary, really keeping this district hemmed in by the sea. Apart from a very minor tweak to some of the countryside stretches, this is just a renaming of the 2020 version’s Prestonpans district.
Although Labour have a decent lead for first place whilst the SNP are pretty close to the Conservatives for second and third, the quirks of proportional representation mean it’s a Labour-SNP tie in seats with the Conservatives lagging behind. Not uncommonly for the Lothians, the Greens and Lib Dems also each take a single seat.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Roxburghshire District
Key Statistics
Population: 34,961
Largest Settlement: Hawick
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Covering most of the historic county of Roxburgh, the key towns here are Hawick, Kelso and Jedburgh. Although it’s marked on the map, the modern hamlet of Roxburgh isn’t actually the same as the historic burgh of Roxburgh, which disappeared centuries ago, though the name lived on for the county. Relative to the 2020 version of this project, this has reverted to something almost identical to the 1973 Act’s district, which means it’s missing St Boswells.
Politically, this is definitely the messiest estimate in this region, and one of the messiest across the country. This district includes four real wards (well, about three-and-three-quarters wards), but two of those were not contested by the SNP in 2022, a very, very rare absence on the mainland for that party. That’s complicated by the fact that one of the successful Independents in one of those wards, Clair Ramage in Hawick and Denholm, was elected for the SNP in 2017. Given that the Greens stood in every Borders district, that’s assumed to have inflated their vote somewhat – and, to a lesser degree, the Labour and Independent votes.
That caveat in mind, the sum of Independents accounts for a plurality of the vote, in part due to the staggering support for Stuart Marshall (69.2% in Hawick and Denholm) and Watson McAteer (48.5% in Hawick and Hermitage). Jedburgh and District’s John Bathgate wasn’t successful in reality, until joining the Conservatives and winning a by-election, but makes up the third here, whereas Ramage is assumed to cede too much support to the SNP (plus no transfers from Marshall in this system) to get in on her own right. The Conservatives get twice as many seats by virtue of actually being a party that can benefit from proportionality, with the SNP taking about half as many votes again. The Lib Dems are the only other group to get multiple councillors, leaving one apiece for the Greens and Labour. In regional vote terms this is the only bit of the Borders where Labour don’t place last out of the major parties, but they still get pipped by the Greens to the regional seat that gets handed out through the levelling mechanism.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Tweeddale District
Key Statistics
Population: 20,248
Largest Settlement: Peebles
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Of the three historic Borders counties, Tweeddale was the least affected by the 1973 Act. Beyond the loss of burgh status for Peebles and Innerleithen, its boundaries didn’t actually change. That boundary, also including West Linton and Skirling, is revived here. That differs very slightly from what I’d suggested in 2020, which because it was using wards as the boundaries included the village of Clovenfords.
Unique amongst Borders districts, the SNP would be the leading party here. That’s based on both the Conservatives placing second and a comparatively low share for Independents (just one, Tweeddale East’s Robin Tatler, standing at all), allowing the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour to also all have their best results anywhere in the Borders, with only Labour failing to win multiple seats.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Whitburn and the Breich Valley District
Key Statistics
Population: 30,617
Largest Settlement: Whitburn
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Whitburn and the Breich Valley is a reworking of my 2020 suggestion for Armadale, Whitburn and the Breich Valley, which had absolutely huge Zero from Nightmare Before Christmas vibes. This is just the ghost dug’s body, with Whitburn as the obvious local centre, whilst the Breich Valley incorporates the likes of Fauldhouse, Longridge, Breich, Stoneyburn, West Calder and Polbeth. There’s also a big, very sparsely populated stretch of the Pentlands that’s a bit awkward but needs to go somewhere, seeing as I didn’t opt to create a Pentlands District using portions of southwestern Edinburgh.
Labour have the barest of leads here in vote terms, but it’s enough to squeak them a seat ahead of the SNP, against a more distant third for the Conservatives. The Greens manage to claw their way across the threshold and pick up a seat, whilst the Lib Dems fall short of that magic number and go without.