Region Overview
Key Statistics
Municipalities: 9
Population: 289,563
Largest Settlement: Cumbernauld
Municipal Councillors: 151
Regional Commissioners: 44
Description
Whereas my 2020 version of this project had proposed a trans-Clyde, but not Strathclyde, region simply titled “Clyde”, this time around I’ve gone for a more dramatic solution, which treats the river as the natural dividing line it is after it emerges from Glasgow. The northern side of that divide here becomes the Lennox Region. The bulk of this is drawn from Dunbartonshire, in both its current and historical forms. It includes the whole of the current East and West Dunbartonshire Councils, with the East including portions of historic Lanarkshire (Bishopbriggs and Lenzie) or Stirling (Lennoxtown). It also restores some historical boundaries by stretching westwards to detach the Lomond area from Argyll and Bute and eastwards, new in this edition, to pull Cumbernauld out of North Lanarkshire (and the Lanarkshire Region I’d put it in last time.)
Rather than simply call the resulting region “Dunbartonshire”, I’ve opted to revive the more old fashioned name “Lennox”, which continues to have currency in the name of the local newspaper around the Vale of Leven and, more notably, in the name of Lennoxtown. That’s an attempt to reflect the inclusion of non-Dunbartonshire areas. In addition to those already mentioned those are Kilsyth, which had already been drawn into Clyde last time around, and Strathblane, which is newly added, both of which are historically in Stirling. Whilst the ancient Lennox didn’t quite cover all of the areas this modern region does, it covered enough of them it’s probably a better name than erasing the fact about a fifth of the population here lies outwith the pre-1973 Dunbartonshire.
I’ve very strongly resisted the idea of annexing neighbouring areas to Glasgow, even though many of the towns here form a contiguous settlement with it. Given Scotland has a huge problem with over-sized local government, expanding our largest city is hardly going to be part of the solution. Doing so with all the joined-up areas would also leave Dunbartonshire an awkward, sundered mess, something I’m unwilling to do both for reasons of locality and as a Dunbartonshire lad myself. I will acknowledge however this specific region, this time around, is deliberately provocative. Thinking about actual service delivery, and the fact I’d expect e.g. Health to be taken up by the regions, would this more geographically cohesive unit be administratively sensible? Given it represents perhaps as many as four separate spurs radiating from Glasgow, does it point too much to the city? Is connecting it worth effectively subordinating local attention to a Glasgow focus?
As you’d expect from a heavily urbanised part of Scotland, the SNP’s closest competitors in most of the region are Labour. However, the relative affluence of large parts of this region results one municipality having a Conservative lead, alongside a notably strong Lib Dem patch in the East Dunbartonshire area. The Greens also have a decent presence in most of the region. Note too the West Dunbartonshire Community Party, whose localised support in the Vale of Leven would also carry them onto the regional council.
Projected Overall Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Overall Regional Election Results (2022)
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Note: Bear in mind that for the regional results on an individual municipality basis below, the final seat is allocated from a region-wide levelling process. This means that whilst the distribution of seats is correctly proportional across the whole region, that is not necessarily the case in an individual municipality. The party that won each municipality’s levelling seat is marked by an asterisk * next to their name on the Votes chart.
Bearsden and Milngavie Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 41,531
Largest Settlement: Bearsden
Municipal Councillors: 21
Regional Commissioners: 6
Description
Under the previous local government structure, Bearsden and Milngavie was its own district. It’s a really neat one to just completely recreate, two towns which are very well integrated and which have a combined population twice the necessary threshold. Although it has practically no population impact, there’s also a little bit of a boundary change here, moving a line that currently follows the Allander Water to the River Kelvin. The main effect is to remove an odd Glasgow spike and to put Dobbies Milngavie branch in, well, Milngavie.
East Dunbartonshire as a whole is one of Scotland’s more finely balanced areas, and nowhere is that clearer than in Bearsden and Milngavie. There’s only just over 5% separating the SNP at the top followed by the combined Independents, Conservatives and the Lib Dems in fourth. Two Independents, Duncan Cumming and Julie Duncan, would make it across the line, whilst the SNP and Conservatives have their votes broken down just the right way to end up tied in seats, though the Conservatives take a vote lead in the regional component.
Labour are a bit further behind, and in fact this is their weakest municipality within the Lennox Region. Nonetheless they are in double digits, leaving the Greens as the only party not to exceed 10% of the vote; even then, they’re not a million miles off. This is a very rare municipality indeed where everyone gets multiple seats. You could cobble any number of weird and wonderful administrations out of this seat spread. It’s also the only municipality in the region where the Greens win more than a single councillor, or where they win a regional commissioner without going via the levelling seats.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Bishopbriggs Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 23,936
Largest Settlement: Bishopbriggs
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Historically speaking, Bishopbriggs was both its own Burgh and sat within Lanarkshire. It was first associated with what is now East Dunbartonshire in the 1973 Act, when it sat within the Strathkelvin District. It’s got a substantial population, which entitles it to once again become a burgh under the rules for this project. There’s a bit of a difference here with the 2020 proposal, which also included the villages of Torrance and Balmore. Those have been ceded to the Campsie District this time around, following the old Lanarkshire-Stirling county boundary along the River Kelvin.
Bishopbriggs ends up (narrowly) the strongest municipality largely within the current East Dunbartonshire for the SNP, and like the others, it’s got all five of the major parties represented. Labour have a reasonably solid second place, with a narrower contest for third between the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Campsie District
Key Statistics
Population: 28,154
Largest Settlement: Kilsyth
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Campsie is where things get really messy if you’re used to current council boundaries, but it makes perfect sense when you overlay historic boundaries. Traditionally, the boundary between Stirling on one side and Lanarkshire and Dunbartonshire on the other followed the Kelvin from its source. Barring a diversion to include the village of Twechar, that’s the southern boundary of this proposal which reunites all the traditional Stirling villages south of the Campsies.
That includes Kilsyth, Croy and Queenzieburn in the east, currently in North Lanarkshire, plus Lennoxtown and Milton of Campsie, from East Dunbartonshire. That’s also where Torrance and Balmore come from, though as mentioned earlier relative to 2020 proposals they’ve been snipped off from Bishopbriggs. New this time is the inclusion of Strathblane, which is taken from Stirling itself. Effectively, that’s a change borne of the pandemic.
Faced with one cycle a day during that first lockdown being the only allowable out-of-home activity, just doing the same canal route would have driven me up the wall. An alternative I identified as a treat was to go up through Bearsden and Milngavie, over Mugdock Hill, and down into Strathblane. It blew my mind I could get into a Stirling village on a 40-45 minute cycle from the northwest of Glasgow – and when I was doing an occasional longer route in the less restricted period, that I then crossed back over into East Dunbartonshire when I turned towards Lennoxtown. It makes no sense! Strathblane effectively sits within the Glasgow commuter belt, given the natural barrier of the Campsies. That’s also why I firmly put this district in Lennox, rather than reassociating it with Stirling via Forth.
Due to the balance of areas included, politically this is pretty closely run between the SNP and Labour, bearing in mind Kilsyth was one of the latter’s strongest wards in the entire country. That’s also why everyone else is comparatively weak, though not to the degree they’re at any risk of failing to pick up a seat.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Clydebank Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 42,210
Largest Settlement: Clydebank
Municipal Councillors: 21
Regional Commissioners: 6
Description
Clydebank is another good sized town that was its own district under the previous structures, and that would make sense to recreate as a Burgh now. In addition to the locality of Clydebank itself, this also includes Duntocher and Hardgate, Faifley, and Old Kilpatrick, all of which are functionally part of the Clydebank urban area. Where this differs slightly from my 2020 proposal, but matches the 1973 reality, is that the village of Bowling is absent. That’s been shuffled over into Dumbarton this time, admittedly as much out of laziness (it’s within the Dumbarton ward) as anything else. As if to over-compensate Clydebank for having been unjustly robbed of its own Burgh Council for the past 30 years, its position slap-bang in the middle of the Lennox Region would make it the ideal location for the headquarters, even if it is smaller than Cumbernauld.
This is one of the least diverse municipalities in the project when it comes to election results, with the SNP and Labour absolutely dominant, the lowest Conservative vote anywhere in the country, and no Lib Dem, Green or Alba presence. The Conservatives nonetheless still get two seats here just due to the size of the council, whilst the SNP fall just short of a rare majority. This is where the use of Sainte-Laguë rather than D’Hondt has an impact, as D’Hondt would have (just – only 8 votes in it!) given the SNP a majority. Alongside the other West Dunbartonshire municipalities, this would be one of less than 10 nationwide not to have a Conservative regional commissioner.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Cumbernauld Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 52,335
Largest Settlement: Cumbernauld
Municipal Councillors: 25
Regional Commissioners: 7
Description
One of Scotland’s major New Towns, Cumbernauld makes for a pretty easy burgh, given its size. Historically speaking, it was part of an awkward eastern exclave of Dunbartonshire, but was associated with Lanarkshire when the current councils were created under the 1994 Act. Whereas I’d continued that in my 2020 iteration of the project, here I’ve gone for a decisive break with current boundaries and a return to the Dunbartonshire fold. I’ve only done so because I split my old Clyde region proposal – that was big enough without adding Cumbernauld, whereas it feels less inflated in Lennox.
Cumbernauld is completely unique within this project in that in addition to being one of just two municipalities with a single-party majority, it’s the only one where they have a majority of votes too. The SNP are completely dominant here and would have entirely free reign on the Burgh Council as a result. Labour only have half as many seats, with only one of the rural districts having a lower vote share. The Conservatives scrape their way into double figures and pick up a trio of seats, leaving one for the Greens.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Dumbarton Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 22,102
Largest Settlement: Dumbarton
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Although Dumbarton has long since been eclipsed by Clydebank (or Cumbernauld, if you’re going fully historic) as the biggest town in Dunbartonshire, it’s still big enough to justify its own Burgh council. Yes, confusingly, the town is Dumbarton and the county is Dunbartonshire. The later is closer to the original Gaelic Dùn Breatainn which may explain it how stuck in at least one place. As mentioned in Clydebank’s entry, there’s a small difference versus the 2020 version via the inclusion of Bowling. There’s no great reason for this beyond the fact I didn’t want to try and estimate the split between Milton and Bowling in their merged boxes.
Perhaps reflecting a bedding in to the Dumbarton constituency at Holyrood, one of just two remaining in Labour hands, this is the strongest municipality in the country for Labour. However, the concentration of the vote on them and the SNP means they don’t have as big an advantage over their nearest opponents as some of their other leads nationwide. Conservative weakness on a small council results in a very rare single seat outcome, putting them on a par with the Greens, plus no regional commissioner, same as in the other West Dunbartonshire municipalities.
That Green result is a bit of an oddity, and comes via the inclusion of the Bellsmyre fragment of the current Leven ward, which is otherwise primarily (as the name implies) in the Vale of Leven area. Typically I’d eliminate and redistribute such a fragmentary vote for a party, but actually the Greens did by far their best in that area (about 6%; 8.5% after eliminating the definitely fragmentary West Dunbartonshire Community Party), so I kept them in and extrapolated, albeit with a much weaker assumed 4% in the Dumbarton ward itself.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Helensburgh and Lomond District
Key Statistics
Population: 24,378
Largest Settlement: Helensburgh
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Although this is the largest single chunk of the proposed Lennox region that isn’t within any of the current Dunbartonshire or Renfrewshire municipalities, it’s historically the westernmost portion of Dunbartonshire. Indeed, when I was born in Dumbarton District Council, this was one of the three areas which made up that district. Ahead of the 1994 Act it opted by referendum to join Argyll and Bute but, no offence, that was a really stupid thing to do. Sometimes the voting majority get things wrong, I’m not sorry to say.
In addition to Helensburgh acting as the terminus for one of the major train lines through Glasgow (and to Edinburgh), it forms a sort of triad with Dumbarton and the Vale of Leven, the other two parts of the old Dumbarton District, where each is clearly a distinct community but maintain close connections to one another. Even if it wasn’t for the historic Dunbartonshire link, those connections would be reason enough to pull this into the region. Although Helensburgh is the main centre here, there are a fair few important villages including Cardroess to the east, Rhu and Garelochhead to the west, Cove and Kilcreggan on the Kilcreggan Peninsula, and Luss, Tarbert and Arrochar on (or near) Loch Lomond.
The Conservatives have done very well in this area lately, to the extent they’d have a comfortable lead over everyone else, in their only vote lead in Lennox. The SNP are correspondingly at their weakest, and Labour’s share is only middling. Two Independents, Mark Irvine (successful in the Lomond North ward in reality) and George Freeman (not successful there), would be elected out of the total for unaffiliated candidates, leaving the Lib Dems and Greens close in votes and tied on a single seat. That’s a dramatic collapse for the Lib Dems relative to their historic results, probably down both to genuine loss of support plus an increased Labour and Green presence eating into their share. Historically weak as it is, it’s still their best performance in Lennox outside of East Dunbartonshire.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Kirkintilloch and Lenzie Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 31,445
Largest Settlement: Kirkintilloch
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Kirkintilloch and Lenzie is mostly a simple double-barrelled Burgh, though a very small change compared to the 2020 version is to have further absorbed the Auchinloch villages from North Lanarkshire. There’s nothing more to that than the fact them being on the opposite side of the M80 from the rest of what would have been their Lanarkshire municipality bugged me. They’re pretty close by though, and there’s precedent for that linkage in the previous Strathkelvin district. Relative to the other bits of the current East Dunbartonshire, this a more mixed area, with Lenzie being more in line with the “posh” perception of East Dunbartonshire, whereas Kirkintilloch is less so.
In our imagined elections, the SNP would have a pretty big lead over Labour here, whilst the Lib Dems and Conservatives faced a tight battle for third. The Greens are much more distant, but still put in a respectable showing, and ensure a five-party split in both municipal and regional seats, thanks to the levelling system.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Vale of Leven District
Key Statistics
Population: 23,472
Largest Settlement: Alexandria
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
This is my favourite municipality not just in the region but in the entire country. That is, of course, entirely objective and not because it’s where I was born and grew up. This cluster of five villages – Alexandria, Balloch, Bonhill, Jamestown and Renton – have long since grown into a single urbanised area, with a population more than justifying their own municipality. Not that I’ve got anything against Dumbarton or Clydebank, but I definitely think my hometown should be able to stand alone without them.
A notable exclusion from this is the village of Gartocharn, which was given to the Forth region in the 2020 version and I’ve still not taken it back. I don’t know if locals might quibble with me on this one, but having went to the local high school in the Vale, I literally never met anyone from Gartocharn. Whether true or not, the perception was folk there sent their kids across the council border to Balfron. Combined with the general vibe of being a small village, it just felt like it made sense to eject it. Sorry!
The Vale is one of two municipalities in the region with a Labour lead, though it’s (just) the narrowest of them, which makes it the only one where they tie in seats with the SNP. As with the rest of West Dunbartonshire it’s a notably weak spot for the Conservatives, who only win a single municipal councillor and no regional commissioner. Although the Greens cross the threshold, with the bare minimum 13 seats up for grabs, it’s not enough for them to pick up a seat, though our old friend the levelling system slots them in regionally. That said, this is one of the biggest and most personally irritating data gaps for me that the Greens didn’t stand in Lomond, but did in Leven. I gave them a “generous-but-low” share estimate for Lomond on the basis of local prominence in the Flamingo Land development dispute, but that prominence may actually have led to a more serious share. Who knows!
What’s unique about the Vale is the presence of the West Dunbartonshire Community Party. Although you could view it as mostly a vehicle for Jim Bollan, who represents the Leven ward and was previously (2007 to 2017) the only Scottish Socialist Party councillor (but has also been Labour and Independent), they actually gave Lomond a very creditable run too, so easily pick up two seats in this model. A staunchly left-wing outfit, as you’d expect from someone who was in the SSP, the WDCP follows a distinct leftist tradition in the Vale that according to legend included a Communist plurality in the old pre-1973 district, though I’ve never been able to verify that.