Region Overview
Key Statistics
Municipalities: 10
Population: 301,124
Largest Settlement: Stirling
Municipal Councillors: 166
Regional Commissioners: 47
Description
The Forth Region is a combination of (most of) the current Stirling, Falkirk and Clackmannanshire Councils, plus a very small portion of West Dunbartonshire around Gartocharn. That makes the overall region a close recreation of the 1973 Act’s Central Region which used those three fully included Council as its Districts. “Central” is a particularly bland name which is hard to connect with, so in the style of two other regions I opted to name this version after the major river that defines the area. The overlapping NHS Board already does so, going by “Forth Valley”.
Historically speaking, the bulk of the population of this region would have been in the counties of Stirling and Clackmannanshire. What is now Falkirk was traditionally part of Stirling, having grown enough over the 20th Century to begin being treated as standalone area. A large portion of Perthshire was transferred to Stirling under the 1973 Act, and accounts for much of the area of the region, and thus a big part of why there’s a significant Urban-Rural divide within it. A smaller portion was also transferred to Clackmannanshire. Presaging my eventual inclusion of Gartocharn, a very small portion of Dunbartonshire around the hamlet of Croftamie was also added in that Act.
Of the proposed regions in this project, Forth is probably the second least changed when compared to the 2020 edition. Most changes are relatively minor and rooted in having access to more locally broken down geometry which enabled easier and finer boundary setting. The most sizeable change is to remove an area from the region, as the village of Strathblane is shunted into Lennox.
The somewhat mixed nature of the region is reflected in the breakdown of projected votes and seats, with a much smaller than average gap between the Conservatives and Labour. Similarly, it’s one of only three regions (four, including unitary councils) where the Greens have a stronger presence than the Lib Dems, for whom this is their second weakest region overall (again, if we include unitaries, it bumps down a place to third). Whereas the Lib Dems would have an elected presence on less than half of the municipalities in the region, the Greens would only be absent from one. Finally, note there’s a solitary municipal councillor for Alba – that’ll be explained more in the relevant municipality, but it makes Forth one of only four regions they have any seats at all.
Projected Overall Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Overall Regional Election Results (2022)
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Note: Bear in mind that for the regional results on an individual municipality basis below, the final seat is allocated from a region-wide levelling process. This means that whilst the distribution of seats is correctly proportional across the whole region, that is not necessarily the case in an individual municipality. The party that won each municipality’s levelling seat is marked by an asterisk * next to their name on the Votes chart.
Alloa Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 21,046
Largest Settlement: Alloa
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Clackmannanshire may be the smallest of the current mainland Council areas by population, but that doesn’t mean it goes un-split here. Alloa is just the right size to once again have its own Burgh council, when you consider it has mostly absorbed neighbouring Sauchie and Fishcross. As we’ll see, that does leave the rest of Clackmannanshire slightly oddly shaped, but it simply wouldn’t be keeping in the spirit of the project to leave it as-is.
In common with many Burgh councils, the lion’s share of the vote in Alloa is split between the SNP and Labour, though the SNP have a clear lead. The Conservatives are comparatively weak here, and with a very strong showing from the Greens that secured them their first ever Clackmannanshire councillor in the real elections, this is the closest the Conservatives come to slipping into fourth place in this region.
That Green strength is relatively atypical for a burgh, and leads to one of just a handful of municipalities nationwide with a bare minimum seat total of 13 where the Greens could expect to win two. Combined with the SNP that would be a majority of seats, which would likely make this a relatively uncontested administration. Note too the complete absence of the Lib Dems – on past performance they’d have been very unlikely to cross the threshold here if they’d stood anyway, and even then, scraping 3% isn’t sufficient in a 13 seater.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Braes District
Key Statistics
Population: 31,318
Largest Settlement: Polmont
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Braes consists primarily of a dense cluster of villages to the east of Falkirk which have largely grown into one another to form a continuous urban area. Prime amongst these is Polmont, but there are another eight villages including Brightons and Laurieston that form the core area. The villages of California, Shieldhill and Whitecross also lie nearby without quite linking into that cluster, whilst Avonbridge and Slamannan lie directly south of Falkirk itself and are rather more separate from the rest of this district. There’s a slight expansion of this one compared to the 2020 version, as polling district level shapefiles made it easier to separate the rural segment out of the Falkirk South ward – though this includes very few residents anyway.
As with most of Forth it’s the SNP who’d be the strongest party here, and it’s pretty close run between Labour and the Conservatives for second. The Greens do about as well as the collective share for Independents, and nominative determinism would see John McLuckie (who contested the Upper Braes ward) elected from amongst them to likely hold the balance of power between possible SNP-Green and Labour-Conservative blocs. This is also the closest the Lib Dems come to a projected seat in any of the municipalities carved off from the current Falkirk, as they would have won the 17th seat but for falling 0.1% short of the threshold.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Clackmannan and the Hillfoots District
Key Statistics
Population: 30,716
Largest Settlement: Tullibody
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
With Alloa crowbarred out into its own burgh, the remainder of Clackmannanshire does look a little bit odd. This combines Clackmannan and Tullibody on either side of Alloa with the string of Hillfoots villages – Menstrie, Alva, Tillicoultry and Dollar. The only difference with the 2020 proposal is dropping Tullibody from the name, just to keep things nice and succinct. Although I’d typically do the largest settlement for “Place and Wider Area” type names, I opted for Clackmannan since it’s the historic county town.
Odd as the shape may look, let’s not forget that Clackmannanshire is known as “the Wee County”. That’s an apt description, and in recent years I’ve cycled the length of it a few times (as part of visiting my Granny, who lives in the area) and fair whizzed through it, so the fact Alloa sits in the middle of it really doesn’t present any kind of navigational challenge!
For the notional elections, only Stirling has the Conservatives a closer second to the SNP than this municipality, reflecting the strength of the party in the Dollar area in particular. Clackmannanshire as a whole was a pretty tight scrap for second though, so Labour aren’t all that far behind still. Although it’s typical for the Greens to have a seat in a Forth municipality, this is also notable as the only one in the region outside of the Stirling to end with a Lib Dem. The regional seat distribution looks particularly lopsided here, but that’s just down to the levelling seat going to the SNP.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Denny and Bonnybridge District
Key Statistics
Population: 27,475
Largest Settlement: Denny
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Covering the western lobe of the current Falkirk area, Denny and Bonnybridge is obviously centred on the two substantial villages named. Also included are Dunipace, on the other side of the Carron from Denny, High Bonnybridge and Greenhill, across the Forth and Clyde Canal from Bonnybridge, plus Banknock and Dennyloanhead in the southwest corner. In 2020 I’d simply called this one “Denny”, but given the size of Bonnybridge, I felt the double barrel was fairer this time. Changes in geography are also very mild, using a burn rather than the Union Canal as the boundary to keep the whole Falkirk Wheel area in Falkirk burgh itself.
This is one of two municipalities in Forth, both within the Falkirk segment, which have a significant Independent vote, which when aggregated places second overall. That would see Billy Buchanan (Bonnybridge and Larbert) and Brian McCabe (Denny and Banknock) elected, as they were in reality, but also meaning there’s a lot of spare space for other parties to win seats. That plays in the Greens’ favour, as just scraping 3% would otherwise typically be a hair too short in a 15 seat council – also meaning an SNP-Green majority would be possible. That Independent presence is also the only reason this isn’t the strongest municipality in the region for the SNP, as shown in the regional vote where that is the case. This is one of three Forth municipalities with no Lib Dem candidate at all, which is unsurprising given their historic weakness in Falkirk.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Dunblane and Bridge of Allan District
Key Statistics
Population: 17,090
Largest Settlement: Dunblane
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Dunblane and Bridge of Allan is where the urban component of the current Stirling council begins to transition into the rural stretch. Dunblane itself is still a good sized town, and although Bridge of Allan is in some respects a suburb of Stirling city itself, it was historically an independent burgh. They are joined by Doune, a third historic burgh, plus the smaller villages of Deanston, Ashfield and Kinbuck. Bar Bridge of Allan, most of this area was contained within Perthshire before the 1973 Act. This one falls really quite far from the target population, and it isn’t even that rural to justify it.
At this point I’ll let you into a little secret: I actually did most of the drafting work on this over the Christmas/New Year period from 2023 into 2024, exactly one year before publishing. This included population estimates, which I then refined from the 2022 Census when that data was released later into 2024. When it was, it showed that the estimated population of the Dunblane and Bridge of Allan was over 2,000 above what it actually is. That meant my original estimate was only just under 20,000 and so it was fine. The reality is not a level I’d otherwise accept, but my resolution (Bridge of Allan in Stirling, the rest with Endrick and the Trossachs) would require a significant reworking of underlying electoral data months after my first pass, and to be honest, I’m knackered and can’t face it! It therefore survives unscathed… this time.
Politically, there’s quite a lot going on in this one. It’s one of just two municipalities in the region with a Conservative (indeed, any non-SNP) lead, but it’s by far the narrower of the two. That transitional nature between urban and rural may explain part of that. The other part of why the SNP end up a relatively close second is likely to be the strength of the Greens in the area, reflecting the fact they’ve won a councillor in the Dunblane and Bridge of Allan ward (which excludes Doune and Deanston) each of the past three local elections. That gives them another one of those very rare municipalities with two seats out of the minimum 13, and also the only place in the region they come third or where they pick up a regional seat directly rather than via the levelling mechanism.
That means it’s correspondingly the only municipality in Forth where Labour come fourth. It’s also the strongest spot for the Lib Dems, very easily giving them a seat, and ensuring this is where they get one of their two regional seats via levelling. Rounding things out Conservative-turned-Independent Alastair Majury managed to maintain enough of a vote that in this scenario he’d been able to remain in office.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Endrick and the Trossachs District
Key Statistics
Population: 19,983
Largest Settlement: Callander
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Accounting for the overwhelming majority of the area of Forth, Endrick and the Trossachs is a big rural chunk defined by three rivers. The Endrick Water in the south flows westwards into Loch Lomond, and passes through or near a string of villages located in its associated strath including Fintry, Balfron, Killearn, Drymen, Balmaha and Gartocharn. That last one is extracted from the current West Dunbartonshire, largely on the basis of my own sense of local connections, having grown up down the road – it definitely seems to look towards and fit better with Drymen than with the Vale of Leven.
The River Forth itself flows through the middle of the area, and prior to 1973 formed the primary dividing line between the counties of Perth and Stirling. It’s one of the two rivers that rise within the Trossachs, and flows through the major village of Aberfoyle and to the south of Thornhill and “Scotland’s Only Lake” at the Lake of Menteith. Finally, the River Teith forms just before Callander, an old burgh, then goes to form the boundary with the Dunblane and Bridge of Allan municipality. You could also make an argument for a fourth major river, the Dochart, which in the far north passes by Killin, Crianlarich and Tyndrum.
This is where the only real change in the region compared to my previous version is found, as the village of Strathblane is traded away to the Campsie District in the Clyde Region – it was the only historic Stirlingshire village south of the Campsies not to have been taken out of the area in 1973. It’s actually a fair chunk of what would have been the population of this municipality, but it did feel particularly disconnected from the rest of it. This does come just under the 20,000 mark (just!), but that’s justifiable on the basis of rurality; as noted in the Dunblane and Bridge of Allan section, if I’d had time for a further rework, I’d actually have stuck Dunblane in here.
This is the other municipality in Forth with a Conservative lead, and given the overwhelmingly rural nature of this district, it’s easily the larger of the two. The SNP still only place a single seat behind, but it’s the weakest part of the region for Labour. The Green share is more of an estimate than elsewhere as they didn’t stand in the Endrick-centred ward, but could be expected to do comparatively well based on 2017 performance. Finally, another Conservative-turned-Independent in Rob Davies missed out on the last seat by the tiniest fraction to the Lib Dems, who also take the levelling seat here as their other in the region.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Falkirk Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 37,795
Largest Settlement: Falkirk
Municipal Councillors: 19
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Falkirk is a nice, easy Burgh Council, and a prime example of a large town that should never have lost its own local government. Falkirk is rather watery for a burgh, with the River Carron providing its northern boundary whilst two canals, the Fourth and Clyde and the Union, meet at the Falkirk Wheel at the burgh’s western edge. Although there are quite a few named suburbs of Falkirk, the only bit of this municipality not to be formally part of the Falkirk locality itself is Hallglen in the southeast. As noted in earlier municipalities, the differences here versus the 2020 proposal are pretty mild, amounting to taking ownership of the whole Falkirk Wheel and losing the very lightly populated rural stretch to its south.
In typical burgh style, the SNP and Labour are the top two here, though the SNP have a huge lead that perhaps indicates the degree to which they’ve carefully cultivated their vote here over the past couple of decades. The Conservatives place a pretty solid third though, miles ahead of the Greens who easily pick up a seat. The most remarkable part of this projection however is obviously that Alba seat. 4.6% in Falkirk North was one of their better results in the country, and my simple method of projecting assumes only a slightly lower vote in the Falkirk South ward. Falkirk would thus be the only municipality in Forth, and one of only five nationwide, with a projected Alba seat.
That would likely be uncomfortable for the SNP and Greens in such a scenario, as being one short of a majority they’d potentially have found themselves partly reliant on a party they don’t much like. It also means that in a certain sense Alba are the party providing “diversity” in this municipality, as the Lib Dems didn’t stand a candidate in either ward.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Grangemouth and Bo'ness Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 31,545
Largest Settlement: Grangemouth
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Another example of a “what it says on the tin” municipality, the overwhelming bulk of this one is quite simply from Grangemouth and Bo’ness (or Borrowstounness, if you want to use it’s Sunday name). These were both burghs in the pre-1973 era, with the mouth of the River Avon acting as the dividing line between them and the counties of Stirling and West Lothian. Bo’ness was shifted into the Falkirk district in that act, and I’ve left it associated with it basically as a habit and for lack of a better place to put Grangemouth otherwise. The only other settlement of note is the village of Blackness, but that’s such a small component I opted to change this one from a District to a Burgh this time.
In our imagined elections, this is the other Forth district with very strong Independents. Ann Ritchie, a former SNP councillor, easily topped the poll in the Bo’ness and Blackness ward of the real Falkirk Council, whereas long-time Independent Robert Spears in Grangemouth had to overtake the Conservatives on transfers to beat them to a seat. They both get in easily here, but that leaves a lot of unused vote space to fill for the three big parties.
Due to the strength of the Independent vote here, it has a number of “worsts” to hand out. It’s the worst municipality in Forth for the SNP after the two where the Conservatives beat them; for the Conservatives overall; for the Lib Dems out of those contested; and for the Greens. That makes it the only one they don’t get a councillor in, albeit transfer patterns from the Independents, as seen in the regional vote, suggest they’d almost certainly have made it over the line in a purely partisan vote.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Larbert and Forth District
Key Statistics
Population: 38,558
Largest Settlement: Larbert
Municipal Councillors: 19
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Larbert and Forth ends up as something of a mopping up district, basically taking in everything in between Falkirk and Stirling. Larbert, alongside Stenhousemuir, Carron and Carronshore, form another urban chunk separated from Falkirk itself by the Carron. A few other villages, most notably Airth, join them from the current Falkirk Council. Breaking council lines, but not those of historic counties as this was all Stirlingshire, the villages of Cowie, Fallin, Plean and Throsk come from the current Stirling. No changes here versus 2020, but I did consider a rebrand to “Larbert and Carse of Stirling”, the very flat plains lying to the south of the Forth. However, unlike the Tayside municipality that also includes “Carse” in its name, only a minority of the Carse of Stirling is actually in this one, with it being a massive chunk of the Endrick and Trossachs district.
The SNP take an easy lead here with one of their strongest results in the region, and only a tiny margin squeaks the Conservatives ahead of Labour, the only municipality rooted (largely) in the current Falkirk Council where they place second, though not in the regional estimate. Tiny as the margin is, it’s enough to give them an additional seat. Rounding out the municipality would be an Independent in the form of Alasdair MacPherson (Bannockburn), another former SNP councillor, plus the usual-for-Forth Green, though this would be their third weakest vote share in the region overall.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Stirling City
Key Statistics
Population: 45,598
Largest Settlement: Stirling
Municipal Councillors: 23
Regional Commissioners: 6
Description
Stirling is a very simple, cut and dried proposal – it’s officially a city, and it’s therefore truly bizarre it doesn’t have its own city council. Stirling as a council area is one of the most starkly divided in Scotland, with a very large rural component grafted onto a relatively weighty urban area. Given the massive difference in character and service delivery between those two kinds of area, I don’t think it was ever sensible to create the modern form of Stirling Council in the 70’s. So, this fixes that. Beyond the city of Stirling itself this also includes the villages of Cambusbarron, Cambuskenneth, and (not Cambus) Blairlogie, which wouldn’t fit anywhere else.
In political terms, the city of Stirling itself follows the typical trend of big urban areas being much less Conservative leaning than rural areas, making it the only proposed municipality fully within the area of the current Stirling council with an SNP lead. In line with the other Stirling municipalities the Lib Dems have a rare-for-Forth councillor, whilst Stirling is the smallest of the city councils to see more than a single Green. It’s also the only city council apart from Glasgow where the Greens beat the Lib Dems.