Region Overview

Key Statistics

Municipalities: 14
Population
:
296,911
Largest Settlement: Inverness
Municipal Councillors: 198
Regional Commissioners: 60

Description

Despite covering a truly enormous area, the proposed Highland region currently only consists of two current councils – the entirety of Highland, and most of Argyll and Bute. Highland Council in particular is without a doubt the biggest mockery in Scottish local government. The idea you can put Inverness, Fort William, Portree, Ullapool and Thurso in the same most local unit of government and call that “local” is laughable. In historic terms, this region covers the counties of Argyll, Caithness, Sutherland, Nairn in full, plus the bulk of the Inverness and Ross & Cromarty counties, excluding only the Western Isles. There’s also a small section of what was traditionally Moray, which was transferred by the 1973 Act.

Under that Act, the Highland Region was coterminous with what became Highland Council in 1994. Argyll and Bute on the other hand formed part of Strathclyde. From a transport links perspective, I can see the logic there. Argyll and Bute is more directly connected to the West Central Belt than to the rest of the Highlands, especially at the southern end where Bute and Dunoon have direct ferry links to Inverclyde. Demographically speaking however it’s much more like the Highlands.

Given I think that there are always certain aspects of governance that are going to need cross-body co-operation, I went with the demographic rather than infrastructure fit. Apart from the Helensburgh and Lomond area, which was historically Dunbartonshire and thus sensible to break off, it wouldn’t really have fit to stick Argyll and Bute onto the Lennox region anyway. In addition, the previous version of this project was published in January 2020, and the pandemic that followed shortly afterwards showed that it is possible to conduct council business remotely, opening an avenue for how to approach the regional council despite the vast expanse.

For this region as a whole, there are two important things to bear in mind. The first is that due to the enormous geographic extent of the area, many of the municipalities here come in substantially below the 20,000 resident target. This is precisely where flexibility is most required to achieve genuinely local government, so the threshold has actually been mostly sidelined here. I’ve nonetheless made a few changes relative to the 2020 version to try and tidy some areas up a bit.

The second is that politically speaking, the Highlands have a notably strong Independent streak at local government level. Given the electoral system suggested is a simple municipality-wide list, it’s not brilliantly easy to translate 2022 results. There are municipalities where huge amounts of the Independent vote goes to waste as candidates win far more votes than they need to be elected, which also then means parties end up over-represented. I’d expect this to be far less of a problem in reality, as a District electing twice as many councillors as the current wards do is likely to have more Independent candidates and a better split of votes between them.

The Highlands have long been an area of more political diversity than Westminster elections have let on, as evidenced by decent showings for all of the major parties. The SNP are the largest party at both levels, and although Independents win many more votes, they nearly tie for seats at municipal level with the Lib Dems due to the inability of those votes to elect multiple candidates. The Conservatives are the third largest in party terms, whilst Labour and the Greens alternate fourth and fifth between municipal (favouring Labour) and regional (favouring the Greens) levels. The Greens do have a lot of gaps in their contesting though which means a lot of their shares are more loosely estimated, so what is their best regional result nationally needs taken with a big pinch of salt. Note too that Alba get a rare councillor here, and although similarly reliant on looser estimates, come relatively narrowly shy of winning regional seats.

Projected Overall Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Overall Regional Election Results (2022)

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Note: Bear in mind that for the regional results on an individual municipality basis below, the final seat is allocated from a region-wide levelling process. This means that whilst the distribution of seats is correctly proportional across the whole region, that is not necessarily the case in an individual municipality. The party that won each municipality’s levelling seat is marked by an asterisk * next to their name on the Votes chart.

Aird and Lochalsh District

Key Statistics

Population: 15,105
Largest Settlement: Beauly
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Aird and Lochalsh represents the sort of awkward midlands of the current Highland council, in that it’s sort of in the middle of a bunch of other more natural areas that it wouldn’t make sense to attach to. Relative to the 2020 Aird and Loch Ness proposal, this has had a westward shift, losing the spur out to Tomatin, but gaining the southernmost portion of what was historically Ross-shire, around Kyle of Lochalsh.

The SNP would have a clear lead on the district council, followed in vote terms by two Independents who stood in the Aird and Loch Ness ward in 2022, David Fraser (successful) and Aaaron Duncan-MacLeod (unsuccessful). In seat terms however, due to all those spare Independent votes, the Conservatives would be second, in their best share in the Highland end of the region, and only narrowly their second best overall. Each of the Lib Dems, Greens and Labour would also have a seat, with only the latter failing to pick up one of the regional commissioners.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Badenoch and Strathspey District

Key Statistics

Population: 13,955
Largest Settlement: Aviemore
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Badenoch and Strathspey was previously a district under the 1973 Act, which I’d basically recreated in the 2020 version. That covered the south eastern portion of what was traditionally Inverness-shire, including the former Burgh of Kingussie, plus the south of historic Moray centred on the burgh of Grantown-on-Spey. This time around it’s got a slight expansion to the northwest, taking in at least a portion of the Strathdearn area, which is crossed by the same main roads and rail lines. That makes for a neater placement for that chunk than tying it to the Aird area as I had last time.

Independents easily win the most votes here, with Russell Jones and Bill Lobban (who both successfully contested the actual Badenoch and Strathspey ward) effectively leaving in proportional terms the majority of their vote unused. That leaves space for the SNP to become the largest party, the Conservatives to win more seats, and the Greens to pick up two councillors, leaving a seat each for the Lib Dems and Labour. The Greens are somewhat quirky here – this covers the one Highland ward they won a seat in 2017, but they failed to hold it in 2022.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Black Isle District

Key Statistics

Population: 17,703
Largest Settlement: Muir of Ord
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Despite the name, the Black Isle is strictly speaking a peninsula. Cromarty at the northern tip was the historic centre of Cromartyshire, a truly nightmarish county consisting of widely dispersed exclaves and enclaves bordered by other counties. Very little of the rest of the Black Isle area was in that county, and fortunately it was absorbed into a joint Ross and Cromarty county in 1890. The village of Maryburgh is not within the Black Isle by the general definition, but since it forms an integrated area with Conon Bridge across the river, I pulled it into the district.

The SNP narrowly beat a trio of Independents to win the most votes – all three were elected in the actual 2022 elections, with Sarah Atkin representing the Black Isle ward itself, whilst Margaret Paterson and Sean Edward Kennedy represent Dingwall and Seaforth. The Lib Dems and Conservatives would each have a pair of councillors, leaving a lone seat for both the Greens and Labour.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Caithness District

Key Statistics

Population: 25,800
Largest Settlement: Thurso
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Not only does Caithness manage to exceed the normal 20,000 threshold, it actually goes past 25,000 residents as the only municipality in the region outside of Inverness to have more than the baseline 13 councillors. This is an almost perfect recreation of both the historic county and the 1973 Act’s district, with some very minor changes that reflect current ward boundaries. There are – I counted – literally 3 buildings in total in the affected area, so I think that’s fine. This is exactly the kind of area that makes an obvious unit of local government and should exist rather than the daft massive Highland region. Despite being at the far north of Scotland, and including the north eastern most tip of the island of Great Britain at John o’ Groats, Caithness is actually quite urbanised. Well over half the population live in the two former Burghs of Thurso and Wick.

Independents would have been the most popular bloc here, with each of the two wards making up Caithness contributing one successful and one unsuccessful (respectively) candidate from the real 2022 elections. Those are Matthew Reiss and Ian Gregory in Thurso and North West Caithness, whilst A.I. Willie MacKay and Bill Fernie were Wick and East Caithness. Not far behind in votes and matching their seat tally is a strong Lib Dem bloc, their strength in this area overall shown by this being their best regional vote share in Highland. The SNP by contrast have their weakest share anywhere in the region, with a rare albeit extremely narrow third on the regional vote with the Conservatives, who they tie for seats on the district too. With no Greens standing in what is overall their worst part of the region based on Holyrood figures, the only other representation on the council would thus be a single Labour councillor.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Cowal and Bute District

Key Statistics

Population: 20,437
Largest Settlement: Dunoon
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

This one combines the Cowal peninsula which forms the eastern part of historic Argyll with the island of Bute, which was once the centre of its own county. Both of these areas have a ferry connection to what is currently Inverclyde, a very short hop across the Firth of Clyde. As noted in the description of the overall region, that does make this placing a bit odd in transport terms, but this is an area that’s always going to be difficult to get spot on. Although Bute doesn’t get its own District in this project, having previously also had a Burgh at Rothesay, it does benefit from the general strengthening of Island voices that results from pairing them with smaller mainland areas than at present. Bute makes up about 30% of the population of this district, whereas it’s just 7% of the current Argyll and Bute.

The SNP do pretty well here, ending up with both easily the largest group on the district council and their best regional vote in Highland, comfortably ahead of the Conservatives. The two Independents, Liz McCabe (elected) and Jean Moffat (unsuccessful), both come from the Bute end, and the Lib Dems also elect a pair. Labour round out the council with a single councillor, as although the Greens do cross the threshold, it’s not by enough to win a seat in a municipality this size.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Easter Ross District

Key Statistics

Population: 21,959
Largest Settlement: Alness
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

The division of Ross into Easter and Wester components isn’t clearly defined, so I’ve done my best here to capture a reasonable Easter Ross District. Although Ross as a historic area is massive, the Easter side is actually quite small, defined to the north and south by the Dornoch and Cromarty Firths. It’s quite urbanised by Highland standards, including two historic Burghs at Tain and Invergordon, plus the rapidly growing town of Alness. That urbanisation helps make it one of the few municipalities I’ve created out of the current Highland to exceed 20,000 residents.

Independent candidates were collectively the most notionally popular here, with the four elected aligning to the total vote share. Two of these stood in the real elections in each of the two wards used to build most of this district, with Pauline Munro and Maxine Morley-Smith coming from Cromarty Firth, whilst Alasdair Rhind and Fiona Robertson stood in Tain and Easter Ross, albeit Robertson lost her seat in reality. The SNP would equal their tally in seats, followed relatively closely by the Lib Dems. In one of just two municipalities in the region with a single-digit vote share, the Conservatives have their worst result in Highland, albeit their regional share is only the second worst. That means they join Labour in the single-seat column, though Labour get more of a presence overall the levelling system at regional level. The Greens likewise have a poor result, this being the only Highland district they both stand in and don’t make the 3% threshold.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Inverness City

Key Statistics

Population: 66,184
Largest Settlement: Inverness
Municipal Councillors: 27
Regional Commissioners: 8

Description

Long recognised as Capital of the Highlands, one of Scotland’s 8 cities, and with rapid population growth, the fact Inverness doesn’t have its own City Council simply heaps more absurdity on the behemoth that is the current Highland Council. It used to be its own Burgh before the 1973 Act, which made it the heart of a still over-large Inverness District. This proposed City Council strikes a balance as it extends far beyond the old Burgh boundary given the growth of the city, the urban area of which has effectively expanded to include the village of Culloden, but doesn’t take in too much in the way of the rural surrounds.

Inverness naturally shows the political diversity you’d expect of a major city, with all five Holyrood parties winning multiple councillors. The SNP end up the largest group, followed by a pretty strong Lib Dem contingent. The Conservatives and Labour are then relatively close to one another, with the Conservatives edging out a single seat advantage. City though it is, Inverness is still in the Highlands, so two Independents would be there as well, Duncan MacPherson (Inverness South) and Morven Reid (Culloden and Ardersier), both successfully elected in the real 2022 elections. That leaves the Greens as the smallest group and the only not to enter double-digit vote share, but still with enough support for two councillors. The regional commissioners likewise split between all five parties, without any relying on the levelling mechanism.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Kintyre and Islay District

Key Statistics

Population: 20,629
Largest Settlement: Campbeltown
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

This just renames the “Kintyre and the Southern Hebrides” proposal from the 2020 version of this project. Although there are of course other islands in this grouping, including Jura, Gigha and Colonsay, Islay’s population of around 3,000 far outstrips the combined total for the others, hence the simplified rename. The mainland component is strictly speaking only partly Kintyre, which is the peninsula starting at Tarbert, whilst the area around Lochgilphead and Inverary lie out of bounds. “South Argyll” wouldn’t have had much character though, whereas Kintyre feels more human.

Independents would do very well here, with their vote share significantly exceeding their seat tally of four – Douglas Philand (Mid Argyll), Donald Kelly (South Kintyre), John McAlpine and Alastair Redman (both Kintyre and the Islands). Of these, only Redman wasn’t elected in the real 2022 elections, but the sad passing of McAlpine very shortly after gave him a by-election route in. The SNP end up the largest group overall due to the spare Independent votes, followed by a Conservative double act and a councillor each for the Lib Dems and Labour. Although the Greens didn’t contest any of these wards in 2022, they did respectably well in Mid Argyll in 2017 and in that Kintyre and the Islands by-election in September 2022, leading me to project a strong regional vote and to expect they’d easily pick up a seat in the double hypothetical of this district existing and them contesting it.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Lochaber District

Key Statistics

Population: 19,979
Largest Settlement: Fort William
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Lochaber comes very close to simply re-creating the Lochaber District of the 1973 Act, with just a few minor differences due to the shape of the current council wards used as building blocks. That means it covers the southern portion of traditional Inverness-shire and the northern area of Argyll. In that Act, Lochaber was extended beyond the traditional River Leven-Black Water boundary to take in the Glencoe area, as well as absorbing the Morvern and Ardnamurchan areas which had no direct land connection to the rest of Argyll. 

A big bounceback for the Lib Dems here would give them an overall lead here, albeit in seat terms they tie with the SNP. The Conservatives, Greens and an Independent (Thomas MacLennan, elected in Fort William and Ardnamurchan) would each get a seat to round out the council. Labour didn’t stand in any wards here in 2022, but historically they actually tended to do well, so I assumed a decent regional share for them that ends up being enough to give them one of the seats via the levelling system.

Note that because the Caol and Mallaig ward that makes up almost half of this district was uncontested in 2022, I had to estimate a vote share in that segment rather than draw from real data. The presence of Independents in 2017 not standing this time complicated things and I effectively just applied big swings against the SNP and Conservatives, a big swing for the Lib Dems, and a decent-but-not-as-strong Green share, so there’s a few more pinches of salt on this one compared to most other estimates.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Lorn and Mull District

Key Statistics

Population: 20,509
Largest Settlement: Oban
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Lorn and Mull is a simple renaming of 2020’s “Lorn and the Central Hebrides” proposal. Mull is the primary island included, but it also takes in Tiree and Coll to the west, Lismore and Kerrera near Oban, and the Slate Islands to the south. Population wise, Mull’s roughly 2,700 makes it the primary island component, so I simplified the title to refer to it. The mainland portion centres on Oban, which is the largest town in Argyll and the terminus of a spur of the famous West Highland Line, which also runs through the likes of Dunbeg, Taynuilt and Dalmally.

The SNP have a narrow lead in votes over an Independent bloc, but end up with a more comfortable seat lead due to the distribution of votes, with three Independents making it in – Kieron Green (successful in Oban North and Lorn), Linda Battison (unsuccessful there) and Andrew Kain (elected in Oban South and the Isles). Two Conservatives and one apiece for the Greens, Lib Dems and Labour round things out. Removing Independents for the regional level gives the best results in the region in that vote for both the SNP and Greens; the latter won a councillor in one of the wards here in reality in 2022, whilst their loss by 0.3 votes in the other ward was the narrowest margin for any candidate missing out in the country.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Nairn and Ardersier District

Key Statistics

Population: 16,402
Largest Settlement: Nairn
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Nairn was historically a county all of its own, albeit quite a small one that had a long period of effective joint governance with Moray. Whereas I’ve often restored historic county boundaries in some form or another elsewhere in this project, I haven’t quite done so here. It wouldn’t make much sense to include the area around Ardersier, also covering Croy, within Inverness City, so linking it to Nairn is probably the most sensible option.

Independents were highly popular here in 2022 with both of Nairn ward’s independents, Laurie Fraser and Michael Green easily making it in under this system. The problem is they’re the only Independents with meaningful support, so a huge portion of that vote does end up going entirely spare, allowing the SNP, Conservatives and Lib Dems to pick up more seats than they would for their shares in a more purely partisan 13-seater. Labour also pick up a seat, but the Greens didn’t contest either of the relevant wards here in 2022 so don’t have a hypothetical presence either. As a niche little election fact though, Nairn elected the first ever Green in Scotland to the then-Highland Region in 1990, albeit the dolphin-whispering councillor left the party not long after.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Skye Island

Key Statistics

Population: 10,699
Largest Settlement: Portree
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Skye ends up as the smallest municipality by population not just of the Highland region, but of the whole project. Coming in at just over half the 20,000 residents target, I reckon it’s just about big enough that should be justifiable. Technically this covers more than just the island of Skye, as it includes neighbouring islands. Of these, only Raasay has a population that you’d need more than one hand to count, and even then it’s below 200. In the 1973 Act’s Highland Region, Skye was combined with the Lochalsh area on the mainland to form a District, which I decided against on the basis that I felt the island could stand alone.

Independents are overwhelmingly, staggeringly dominant in terms of vote share here, winning comfortably over half the vote. That elects all four of the Independents who stood in the real 2022 elections for the Eilean a’ Cheò ward, John Finlayson and Calum Munro having been successful then, whilst Fay Thomson and Donald MacDonald missed out. That nowhere near uses up all their votes, allowing almost everyone else to outperform their share seat wise, with the Lib Dems and Labour unlikely even to have gotten in with their shares. Note too there’s a rare Alba councillor here, with their marginally higher share possibly borderline as to whether it’d have seen them across the line without so many wasted Independent votes. The Greens were inexplicably absent here, having done pretty well in a 2020 by-election that, with a repeat performance, might have seen them win a councillor. Nonetheless, taking that result as a starting point for the regional tally gives them one of the regional seats here.

Overall, this one is a good example of how the current STV voting system doesn’t necessarily translate well to a list system with many more seats, as well as a genuine deficiency with list systems when it comes to Independents. However, with 13 seats up for grabs, I imagine in this scenario a few more people would have been inclined to throw their hats in the ring, dispersing the Independent vote a bit more whilst getting more of them elected.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Sutherland District

Key Statistics

Population: 12,444
Largest Settlement: Dornoch
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Sutherland is a pretty massive bit of Scotland which has a long history as its own county. That was recognised in the 1973 Act when it retained status as a District. I feel it’s appropriate to crowbar it back out of the gigantic Highland region. Compared to the traditional county, both the 1973 District and this proposal have a little bit of what used to be Ross-shire south of the River Oykel and along the River Carron, which adds a little bit to the population. Stretching from coast to coast, most of the population live along the south east, including the county town and former Burgh of Dornoch. Apart from at Lairg, the interior is relatively sparsely populated, with the remaining major villages along the northern and western coasts.

The Lib Dems take a lead in votes, though not so wide it gives them any more seats than the SNP. Two Independents would have been elected, as they were in the real elections, Jim McGillivray (East Sutherland and Edderton) and Hugh Morrison (North, West and Central Sutherland), equalling the Conservatives for seats, and leaving one for Labour. Although the Conservatives are a distant third, the levelling system for regional commissioners gives them a second seat. This is yet another municipality that had no Greens contest any of the relevant wards in 2022, though it was in their weakest Highland constituency so that suggests they’d not have done particularly well anyway. 

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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Wester Ross District

Key Statistics

Population: 15,106
Largest Settlement: Dingwall
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4

Description

Definitions of Easter versus Wester Ross tend to be a bit hazy from what I can make out, so the inclusion of Dingwall here might be a stretch in some eyes. Nonetheless, the accompanying map hopefully shows the sense this makes, with the main road leading out through Strathpeffer and then splitting beyond Garve, with branches going off towards Ullapool, Gairloch, Shieldaig and Lochcarron. This is a bit smaller than the 2020 version, which had included the Lochalsh area that is instead now tied to Loch Ness. 

The SNP have a clear lead here in what is their strongest municipal result in Highland. The Conservatives are slightly closer in seats than votes thanks to the fact only one Independent (Biz Campbell, elected in Wester Ross, Strathpeffer and Lochalsh) has enough votes to win. That’s also why the Lib Dems end up with 2 councillors for slightly fewer votes. The remaining seats go one each to the Greens and Labour, with the former having done well enough in the core Wester Ross portion in 2017 that they get assumed a strong enough vote again in this hypothetical for this to be their second best district in the whole region, only a smidge behind their best.

Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)

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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)

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