Region Overview
Key Statistics
Municipalities: 13
Population: 601,748
Largest Settlement: East Kilbride
Municipal Councillors: 277
Regional Commissioners: 79
Description
The proposed Lanarkshire region is a neat and easy one, covering most of the historic Lanarkshire county, excluding those areas ceded to Glasgow and East Dunbartonshire over the course of the past two reorganisations. The actually existing Lanarkshire area includes Cumbernauld which has been part of North Lanarkshire since the 1994 Act but was historically in Dunbartonshire. Both Cumbernauld and Kilsyth area, which was transferred out of Stirling in the 1973 Act aren’t included here, tying up with historic Dunbartonshire in the Lennox region.
Lanarkshire is one of a small handful of historic counties that doesn’t really need to be merged into a wider region. This version would be roughly the same population as Glasgow, a size unparalleled by any other historic county. As such although there was an obvious rationale in terms of transport and so on for including it as part of Strathclyde in the 1973 Act, from a genuine local government perspective that was a grievous error.
I imagine the population was historically rather more evenly distributed, but these days Lanarkshire consists of a massively urbanised conurbation to the east of Glasgow, plus a large but much more sparsely populated rural southern end (Clydesdale) which extends so far as to rub against Dumfriesshire and the Borders. Although there’s therefore quite a substantial difference in terms of needs and character between these two areas, it made sense to me to largely preserve the historic county – not least because separating Clydesdale from it would remove Lanark itself.
Politically, Lanarkshire distinguishes itself by being the most two-party dominated part of Scotland. Nowhere else has the two strongest parties accounting for as much of the vote as here, with the combined SNP and Labour tally a couple of points shy of three quarters of the regional vote. Interestingly, none of the other parties count this as their weakest region overall, but nowhere else has the Conservatives, Greens and Lib Dems all relatively weak. They nonetheless all end up with spots on the hypothetical regional council, and though Alba fall short, this is the only region where it’s estimated they get more than a single municipal councillor. There’s also a British Unionist Party contingent via the district covering the ward they elected a genuine councillor in 2022.
Projected Overall Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Overall Regional Election Results (2022)
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Note: Bear in mind that for the regional results on an individual municipality basis below, the final seat is allocated from a region-wide levelling process. This means that whilst the distribution of seats is correctly proportional across the whole region, that is not necessarily the case in an individual municipality. The party that won each municipality’s levelling seat is marked by an asterisk * next to their name on the Votes chart.
Airdrie District
Key Statistics
Population: 54,606
Largest Settlement: Airdrie
Municipal Councillors: 25
Regional Commissioners: 7
Description
On paper, Airdrie should have been an easy example of a restored burgh, though with an expansion relative to its historic predecessor by taking in Glenmavis and Chapelhall. However, that would leave Plains, Caldercruix and Wattston weirdly adrift with nowhere logical to attach to, plus some rural stretches. So, they get bolted onto Airdrie, and thus we get a District rather than a Burgh council. This is basically the same as the 2020 version, except that it uses the M8 as its entire southern boundary so has more of that rural bit to the east.
The SNP would be the largest party here, with a two seat advantage over Labour. The Conservatives would be the only other party to pick up any seats, alongside Independent Alan Beveridge, who was successfully elected in Airdrie North in 2022. Alba wouldn’t have been a million miles off the threshold here, with about twice the vote of the Lib Dems and no Green presence at all.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Bellshill and Uddingston District
Key Statistics
Population: 48,644
Largest Settlement: Bellshill
Municipal Councillors: 23
Regional Commissioners: 6
Description
Bellshill and Uddingston crosses the current North-South boundary, and the M74, to unite the Bellshill and Viewpark area to the north with Uddingston and Bothwell in the south. In the 2020 version, the northern component had been standalone, whilst the southern had been part of a Blantyre district. This time around I’ve used the Clyde as a more natural local boundary. Although affluence is by no means universal, both of the components here include some of the least deprived parts of the respective current Lanarkshires.
Labour squeeze a lead in votes out over the SNP here, though both parties end up tied in seats as a result, with the Conservatives following with half as many councillors, the area’s relative affluence marking this out as their second best share in the urbanised part of Lanarkshire. That leaves three seats, which go one each to an Independent (Joseph Budd, who missed out in the Thorniewood ward), the Lib Dems, and the Greens. For the two smaller parties, it’s the Uddingston portion that pulls them across the line, by the skin of their teeth in the Greens’ case.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Carluke and Clydesdale North District
Key Statistics
Population: 28,686
Largest Settlement: Carluke
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
One of Lanarkshire’s few rural districts, Carluke itself provides almost half of the population of this one. Much of the rest is then found in scattered villages including Law, Forth, Crossford, Carstairs and Carnwath. In the 2020 version, Carluke had been a smaller district without most of these villages and instead stretching to Kirkmuirhill. I think this makes a bit more sense, with a more natural east-west road network.
Labour’s slender lead in votes over the SNP doesn’t give them any edge in seats, and the levelling system ends up giving the SNP an extra regional councillor. The Conservatives really aren’t all that far behind either though, this being their second strongest municipality in the region, a clear consequence of it having such a significant rural component. The Greens also manage to scrape their way to a seat, with about the barest minimum vote that would allow that here, despite which they also get a regional seat through the levelling process – sometimes, those seats just fall on a “well, that’s the last possible place to get one” basis!
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Coatbridge Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 45,724
Largest Settlement: Coatbridge
Municipal Councillors: 23
Regional Commissioners: 6
Description
This Burgh almost perfectly recreates the pre-1973 Act Coatbridge Burgh, with just a small expansion to the southwest to include Bargeddie. Under that Act Coatbridge was part of the Monklands District alongside Airdrie. Although those two towns remain very tightly linked, given the population it makes more sense in terms of this project to keep them separate.
The SNP have a very strong base of support in Coatbridge, getting pretty close to the 50% mark, making this their best result in Lanarkshire. Labour also do pretty well here, whilst the Conservatives are very weak, this being their worst result overall in the region and the only place they are in single-digit support. They do nonetheless get a pair of councillors thanks to there being a lot of seats up for grabs. The final seat is taken by Alba, one of their rare scattering, which would also put the SNP in the likely uncomfortable circumstance of being reliant on that councillor for a majority.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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East Kilbride Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 77,637
Largest Settlement: East Kilbride
Municipal Councillors: 29
Regional Commissioners: 9
Description
Another of the post-war New Towns, East Kilbride has grown to such an extent it’s the second largest town in Scotland (behind Paisley), and the sixth largest settlement overall. It grew fast enough to have its own Burgh before the 1973 Act swept those away, and then gave its name to a wider District that extended to the south to take in Strathaven and the surrounding countryside. In this project it gets to go back to being its own Burgh.
The SNP would have been the largest party here with a relatively comfortable margin over Labour, whilst the Conservatives would be a much more distant third. Home to the Greens’ only South Lanarkshire councillor in reality, this would also be one of only two municipalities in the region where they win a pair of seats. The Lib Dems would then be the only party to have a sole councillor, alongside Independent David Watson, who won in East Kilbride West in 2022.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Fortissat District
Key Statistics
Population: 22,070
Largest Settlement: Shotts
Municipal Councillors: 13
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Fortissat looks almost like the closest thing to a rural district spinning off the current North Lanarkshire, but actually most of the population can be found in Shotts and Newmains. Much of the rest lies within the villages of Harthill, Salsburgh, Bellside and Allanton. In the 2020 version of this project, I’d suggested a “Shotts and Central Lanarkshire” which I really didn’t like on reflection, so this basically takes the M8 and A73 as more natural borders, except where it needs to expand westwards to take in all of Newmains.
Electorally this would be a particularly interesting little area. Labour take the lead here, and although it’s not massive over the SNP, it is the largest of their three leads in Lanarkshire. Not only are the SNP comparatively weak here, with their second lowest vote share, but it’s the worst one for Pro-Independence parties overall. That’s explained by the strong presence for the British Unionist Party, who won their sole councillor in the real Fortissat ward in 2022. Indeed, they also manage to pick up one one of the regional spots here too, though at regional level they’d be below the 3% threshold. Similarly, that’ll be why this is so poor for the Conservatives, making it the only municipality in the region where they only have a single councillor. The final seat is taken by the extremely popular Independent Robert McKendrick (Junior, who won the Murdostoun ward in 2022), who like his father before him basically holds Newmains as a personal fiefdom.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Hamilton Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 71,893
Largest Settlement: Hamilton
Municipal Councillors: 29
Regional Commissioners: 9
Description
Hamilton is big and important enough to serve as the headquarters for the current South Lanarkshire Council, and easily justifies having its historic burgh status returned. Compared to the 2020 version, this has been expanded to include Blantyre, which had then been tied to Uddingston and Bothwell. A cross-Clyde municipality did seem a bit unnatural, Blantyre is too small to stand alone, and it’s right next to Hamilton, so this seemed the best place to put it.
Although the SNP have a small lead in votes, in seat terms they’d be tied with Labour for the largest group. The Conservatives are a distant and unremarkable third, very much par for the urban Lanarkshire course, but this is the second best part of the region for the Lib Dems, and thus one of just two municipalities where they would have a group of councillors. The Greens are then left with the remaining seat.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Holytown and Central Lanarkshire District
Key Statistics
Population: 28,306
Largest Settlement: Newarthill
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
This district is a little bit of a “leftover”, containing a cluster of villages in the middle of North Lanarkshire which it wouldn’t make great sense to tie to any surrounding areas, but which haven’t previously had their own governance. It’s basically the non-Fortissat component of the 2020 edition’s “Shotts and Central Lanarkshire”, boxed in by the M8 in the north, A73 in the east, the South Calder Water in the south, and the railway on the west. Although Holytown isn’t the largest individual settlement here, it is the one that has the most historic weight locally, so I’ve gone against trend and used that as the first part of the name.
Politically, this is the least diverse municipality in the region with only four options on the notional ballot paper in 2022 terms. The SNP end up the most popular party overall, but Labour equalise in terms of seats, the Conservatives sit in third place, and a strong showing by Alba easily secures them a seat.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Lanark and Clydesdale South District
Key Statistics
Population: 33,942
Largest Settlement: Lanark
Municipal Councillors: 17
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Lanark and Clydesdale South unites the historic but long overshadowed county town with the overwhelming bulk of rural Lanarkshire which lies to the south of Lanark, including Biggar, Kirkmuirhill, Lesmahagow, Douglas, Abington and Leadhillls. This is a relatively small change to the 2020 proposal for a “Clydesdale” district, gaining Kirkmuirhill but losing the villages north of Lanark.
Though the SNP have a lead here in both votes and seats, this district distinguishes itself by being the only part of Lanarkshire where the Conservatives come second, and thus where Labour come third. It’s pretty close run between the top three parties though, with less than 10% and just 2 seats separating the SNP in first from Labour in third. The remaining spots go one each to Independent George Greenshields (stood unsuccessfully in Clydesdale East) and the Greens.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Larkhall and Avondale District
Key Statistics
Population: 36,449
Largest Settlement: Larkhall
Municipal Councillors: 19
Regional Commissioners: 5
Description
Larkhall and Avondale is sort of the transitional zone between urban and rural Lanarkshire, with Larkhall being a decently sized town, a bit shy of half of the population here. The rest of the district is defined by, funnily enough, the Avon Water, which passes by the other major settlements at Strathaven and Stonehouse. Due to their proximity, it also draws in villages like Quarter, Chapelton, Netherburn and Drumclog.
The political makeup of the imaginary district council is effectively pretty reflective of that transitional nature. Though the SNP are the largest party at municipal level, this is actually their worst vote share in Lanarkshire, and they slip behind Labour at regional level. The Conservatives are a pretty close third, not even 5% behind the SNP, and Independents take a huge rake of votes between them, Margaret Cooper (elected in Avondale and Stonehouse) and Jackie Burns (unsuccessful in Larkhall). The Greens also do comparatively well here, easily taking the remaining seat.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Motherwell and Wishaw Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 62,889
Largest Settlement: Motherwell
Municipal Councillors: 27
Regional Commissioners: 8
Description
Although both Motherwell and Wishaw are separately big enough for their own burghs, they have a very long united history, with even the pre-1973 Burgh being a joint endeavour. I therefore don’t want to be the one to separate these clearly beloved partners, and so this gets to be a double-barrelled burgh. As I’ve used the South Calder Water as the boundary with Central Lanarkshire, this does exclude small portions around Cleekhimin and Prospect Hill that were once part of the town.
As is so often the case for large towns, it’s the SNP sat out in front here, and a decent Labour showing in second. Perhaps surprisingly, on both fronts, this is the best Conservative share outside of the more rural districts, and also the second best Green share and one of only two Lanarkshire municipalities they get more than one seat. That’s built on them having only contested two Motherwell wards in 2022 but done comparatively well in both. That also makes this the only municipality carved off the current North Lanarkshire where they pick up a regional seat.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Rutherglen and Cambuslang Burgh
Key Statistics
Population: 64,531
Largest Settlement: Cambuslang
Municipal Councillors: 27
Regional Commissioners: 8
Description
Another double-barrelled burgh, in my 2020 version of this project I’d had Rutherglen and Cambuslang as separate from one another. Cambuslang is one of, if not the, largest settlements in Scotland never to have had its own burgh council, which fed into my thinking last time. This time around, given the hazy boundary between the two towns and how they clearly form a pretty well integrated unit, I decided just to combine them into one burgh council too. It’s worth noting that for the two decades under the 1973 Act, this area was part of Glasgow City Council, before the 1994 Act pulled it back out into South Lanarkshire. I’ve maintained that split here, but despite my general preference not to expand Glasgow, this is the one area I would consider reasonable to include given relatively recent history.
In the “completely normal for Lanarkshire” stakes, the SNP are the largest party and Labour are pretty much unchallenged for second, whilst the Conservatives are much weaker than they are nationally. However, uniquely within Lanarkshire, it’s the Lib Dems pushing the Conservatives into fourth, with a very solid vote share and not simply “more than one” councillor but a whole handful. There’s a real Lib Dem stronghold in Rutherglen, consistently electing their former Glasgow MSP to council, and though not as strong, a bit of a contact bleed into the two neighbouring wards. That leaves the Greens as the only sole-seat party, though they do complete the set for the regional seats.
Projected Municipal Election Results (2022)
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Projected Regional Election Results (2022)
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Stepps and Moodiesburn District
Key Statistics
Population: 26,371
Largest Settlement: Stepps
Municipal Councillors: 15
Regional Commissioners: 4
Description
Stepps and Moodiesburn basically covers most of that cluster of villages that’s wedged in between the current Glasgow and East Dunbartonshire Council areas. Compared to my 2020 version however, it’s ceded the Auchinloch area to the Lennox region. In addition to the named villages, it also inclydes Muirhead, Chryston, Gartcosh and Glenboig. Compared to current council boundaries, there’s a little bit of an expansion at Stepps, where currently part of the Millerston area and then Stepps Playing Fields are not actually in North Lanarkshire but instead Glasgow. Obviously, that’s due a little tidy!
This is one of a few Lanarkshire municipalities where the SNP and Labour tie on seats, though in vote terms the SNP are ahead. The remaining seats go to a pair of Conservatives and a single Green. This is the best municipality in the region for the Greens, reflecting the fact they won a councillor in the Stepps, Chryston and Muirhead ward in 2022, much to my surprise. However, they fail to pick up a regional seat, basically because the small size of this municipality makes it a less likely place to squeak a seat even with the levelling mechanism. Although the Lib Dems barely drag themselves over the threshold here, it’s not quite enough to actually get a seat with only 15 up for grabs.
This is an interesting little example of how even a “maximally” proportional system can still be knocked slightly askew if votes don’t fall perfectly. Although the SNP + Green share is slightly higher than Labour + Conservative, the latter ends up with one seat more due to how the votes are distributed. If you viewed things as constitutional blocs though, you could fairly argue the 3% the Lib Dems had would have favoured Labour and the Conservatives, so that makes up the difference.