Islands Overview

Since the first modern rationalisation of local government in 1973, Scotland’s three major islands groups have remained consistent. Whereas the mainland spent a couple of decades under a reformulated two-tier model, the islands became standalone unitary authorities. That status is maintained in this project, reflecting the distinct local identities of each group, and the uniqueness of service delivery in island areas.

That’s not to say there would be zero change compared to the present however. As unitary authorities holding the powers of both municipal and regional government, they would pick up the additional responsibilities over for example health that I would expect regions to have. That’s why the seat apportionment for each council is basically “what they currently have plus 15%”: more responsibilities, more people to exercise them.

Although there is a significant political distinction between Orkney and Shetland as one group and Na h-Eileanan an Iar as another in national politics, locally one thing is true in every one of these councils: Independents reign supreme. This combined with the limited slate of party candidates in each makes translating from the current STV voting system to a hypothetical open list PR system somewhat complicated. That means that in a project already fundamentally hypothetical, some of the figures below are extra hypothetical.

A quirk arising from this is that by virtue of having been the only national party to stand in each islands group, the Greens end up with at least one seat in each. That means, counting the unitary islands and cities on the same tier as regions, the Greens end up the only party that would (again, purely hypothetically) have some degree of local governing influence over absolutely everyone in Scotland. In the reality of using list PR nationwide I’d expect most if not all of the national parties to be more willing to give the islands a crack, but it’s a weird little bit that arises from basing this project on the real 2022 votes cast.

Comhairle nan Eilean Siar

Key Statistics

Population: 27,462
Largest Settlement: Steòrnabhagh (Stornoway)
Municipal Councillors: 33
Regional Commissioners: 0

Description

The truly unique nature of this one is evident even from its name – the Gaelic Comhairle nan Eilean Siar (Council of the Western Isles) is the official name of this council area for all purposes, including in English. That reflects these islands status as the last remaining majority Gaelic-speaking area in Scotland, and is matched by the name of the constituency in both parliaments, where is is Na h-Eileanan an Iar, another rendering of Western Isles. In English, you may also hear this chain referred to as the Outer Hebrides. Although not a Gaelic speaker myself, as a matter of principle and respect I typically take a Gaelic-first approach to place names here, as seen in the map above.

Na h-Eileanan an Iar historically stood out for more than just linguistic reasons however. Of the three island groups it was the only one that was not historically its own county. Despite the combined Leòdhas agus Na Hearadh (Lewis and Harris) being the third largest island in our neighbourhood, after Great Britain and Ireland, it’s culturally thought of as two separate parts. Whereas Leòdhas was historically in Ross-shire, Na Hearadh and the remainder of the chain were in Inverness-shire. The other major islands in the group from north to south, are Uibhist a Tuath (North Uist), Beinn na Faoghla (Benbecula), Uibhist a Deas (South Uist), Barraigh (Barra) and Bhatarsaigh (Vatersay).

In national politics, these islands have been something of a swing seat between the SNP and Labour, and are split that way between Holyrood and Westminster after the 2024 General Election. That used to carry down to local level as well, with Comhairle nan Eilean Siar the most political of the islands councils, but for whatever reason Labour stopped standing in 2017. Since then it’s been a large SNP group and a solo Conservative alongside Independents on the real council.

The real 2022 elections unfortunately saw three wards going uncontested, and on top of that the Conservatives, Greens and Alba each only stood in one contested ward. The available data is therefore quite limited, and the approach I have taken was basically to assume a flat 10% for the Conservatives, 2% for the Greens, and 1% for Alba in the wards they didn’t contest, assuming their shares in the ones they did were inflated by weel-kent candidates. That nonetheless suffices to give a trio of Conservatives and one Green alongside the SNP’s slate of 7. The 22 Independents are assumed to be the 5 subsequently elected at by-elections from the uncontested wards, and the 17 who stood at the full election as far down in first preferences as Malcolm K. MacDonald. He got 201 votes, so any Independents with more also get in under this imagined scenario.

Projected Election Results (2022)

Votes
Seats

Orkney Islands

Key Statistics

Population: 21,977
Largest Settlement: Kirkwall
Municipal Councillors: 25
Regional Commissioners: 0

Description

Although those from the Central Belt can think of all of the islands as distant and remote places, Orkney lies nearest to the mainland of the three groups. It’s comparatively easily accessible via a short hop on the ferry from Thurso to Stromness, which will take you past the famed Old Man of Hoy sea stack. In addition, Orkney is home to some of the best preserved and most dramatic ancient monuments and dwellings in Scotland, speaking to a long history as an important hub. In the space of a couple of hours you can find yourself easily understand why ancient people would imagine the siting of the Ring of Brodgar to be one of deep magic and spirituality, and then go see something as recognisably mundane and trivial as a dresser, put together from stones, in an ancient family home.

Present day Orkney now has a distinctly modern importance, holding some of the greatest potential anywhere in Europe never mind Scotland for tidal power. All in all, a visit is strongly recommended for anyone who has made the mistake of thinking of Scotland’s islands as inconsequential outliers from a national discourse rooted in Glasgow and Edinburgh. In addition to the Mainland (the simple name of the core island), other major islands in the group include South Ronaldsay, joined by causeway to Burray and then the Mainland; Hoy, South Walls, Flotta and Graemsay in the southern cluster; and Westray, Sanday, Stronsay, Shapisnsay, Eday and Rousay in the northern cluster.

Politically, Orkney has often been amalgamated with neighbouring Shetland as the Northern Isles, yet both have retained their own governance throughout recent history. Whether combined at Westminster or standalone at Holyrood, Orkney has been a mighty stronghold of the Lib Dems at national level, with popular political mythos attributing their narrow holding of the joint seat in 2015 to these islands.

At local level, Orkney is the only one of the three islands groups not to have elected a councillor from the Westminster parties at any election in the STV era. However, the Greens have had a presence since 2017, and at that same election a pair of councillors were elected under the “Orkney Manifesto Group” banner, an ultimately failed attempt to bring a local brand of party politics to the chamber. That means the imagined council splits entirely between Independents and Greens, with a relatively hefty group of four for the latter. The 21 Independents here get as far down the first preference rankings as Barbara Foulkes, who won 155 votes. Anyone with more than that would also be amongst the elected number in this scenario.

Projected Election Results (2022)

Votes
Seats

Shetland Islands

Key Statistics

Population: 22,985
Largest Settlement: Lerwick
Municipal Councillors: 27
Regional Commissioners: 0

Description

The most northerly and easterly part of Scotland, Shetland has a special place in the cartographer’s heart… or, perhaps, a pained place in their head. Showing Shetland in its true-to-life position requires the inclusion of a vast expanse of uninhabited sea and a smaller scale that can make reading data difficult. Yet pop it in a repositioned box somewhere beyond the Moray Firth, and Shetlanders will surely make their displeasure known whether through jest or insult. At the risk of further stoking their ire, sometimes the box simply is the best solution. Only a small minority of maps are actually exclusively intended to show where things are in relation to one another, and data legibility matters more in most others. If in doubt, I always advise not to use any Ballot Box Scotland-or-adjacent maps for navigation purposes.

Extended Shetland Box gags aside, Shetland has quite a lot of similarities to Orkney, right down to its own ancient monuments and a modern status as an energy hub, albeit primarily for the North Sea oil and gas that can be found in its vicinity. Like Orkney, Shetland was long its own county under the name “Zetland”, from which the ZE postcode derives. There’s a fun linguistic point there about how the written influences the spoken, because like many Scottish Z’s (think Menzies) that spelling arose from the old letter Yogh, which very much did not represent a Z or Sh sound, but which looked kind of Z-like and so that was the substitute when Yogh wasn’t available for printing. Beyond the Mainland (again, simply named here), other islands include Bressay just across the water from Lerwick; West and East Burra off the southern Mainland; the Fair Isle halfway to Orkney; Foula and Papa Stour of the western Mainland; Whalsay off the eastern Mainland; and Yell, Fetlar and Unst in the northern cluster.

Despite its geographic location, Shetland is actually something of a middle ground between Orkney and Na h-Eileanan an Iar politically. At national level it has seen nothing but Lib Dem representation for decades, but unlike Orkney popular myth has it leaning SNP in 2015, and indeed in 2021 the Holyrood seat became a Lib Dem-SNP marginal for the first time. It’s also had more party presence than Orkney, with an SNP councillor since 2017 and a Green and Labour joining in 2022, though none of those are as strong as the SNP are in the Comhairle.

Shetland had two uncontested wards in 2022 which complicate our election projections here in two ways, firstly obviously by lack of votes locally, and secondly by the fact one of the councillors elected unopposed was Labour’s Tom Morton. He’s since resigned his seat, indicating that he’d never really expected to be elected in the first place and only really stood as a favour. Similar to Comhairle nan Eilean Siar then, I just assumed some flat vote shares across the wards parties didn’t contest: 5% for the Greens (who beat the SNP in both wards they faced off in), 4% for the SNP, and the bare-minimum 3% for Labour. That’s almost certainly an underestimate but I didn’t want to exaggerate, and it gives a trio of Greens, pair of SNP, and solo Labour councillor alongside 21 Independents. Here that includes 5 councillors either from uncontested wards or elected at the subsequent vacancy-filling by-election, and 16 councillors down as far as John Leask and his 135 first preference votes.

Projected Election Results (2022)

Votes
Seats